S&P 500 Long-Term Trend and Expected Returns
S&P 500 Long-Term Trend and Expected Returns Chart suggesting that the 5 and 10-year return forecast is not very exciting. Image: Ned Davis Research
Keyword: long-term trend
Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities
Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities This chart shows that a large pattern appears in the price of movements of commodities. Image: Visual Capitalist
The Stock Market’s Central Trend
The Stock Market’s Central Trend The chart shows that the S&P 500 is only 10% above its long-term trend since 1871. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Employment Rate 55+
U.S. Employment Rate 55+ The U.S. employment rate of older workers is increasing in a long-term trend. Image: Ernie Tedeschi
U.S. Long Bond
U.S. Long Bond This chart shows the U.S. long bond and its long-term trend line. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP The long-term trend in U.S. nominal GDP growth is a good indicator of U.S. nominal bond yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Projecting the Bull and Bear Market
Projecting the Bull and Bear Market If a US-China trade deal is reached, this chart suggests a rally to the long-term bullish trend line at 3300. Image: Real Investment Advice
Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under Trump?
Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…
Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP
Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend since 1950. It is not a timing indicator for predicting the end of business cycles. But historicammy, before recessions, it tends to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, Net Domestic Investment to GDP has a…
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today?
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend and reduces productivity.This makes it difficult to see the Fed funds rate exceed the…