The Stock Market’s Central Trend

The Stock Market’s Central Trend The chart shows that the S&P 500 is only 10% above its long-term trend since 1871. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Employment Rate 55+

U.S. Employment Rate 55+ The U.S. employment rate of older workers is increasing in a long-term trend. Image: Ernie Tedeschi

U.S. Long Bond

U.S. Long Bond This chart shows the U.S. long bond and its long-term trend line. Image: Fidelity Investments

Projecting the Bull and Bear Market

Projecting the Bull and Bear Market If a US-China trade deal is reached, this chart suggests a rally to the long-term bullish trend line at 3300. Image: Real Investment Advice

Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under Trump?

Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…

Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP

Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend since 1950. It is not a timing indicator for predicting the end of business cycles. But before a recession, it always peaks (red arrow) and then declines (black arrow). Currently, Net Domestic Investment to GDP has a nice…

Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today?

Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend and reduces productivity.This makes it difficult to see the Fed funds rate exceed the…