S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend A rise in the ratio of margin debt to the S&P 500 market cap could indicate a bullish outlook for the U.S. stock market, potentially signaling confidence in the market’s upward trajectory. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield and Long-Term Trend This chart suggests that bond yields are well below their long-term trend. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities This chart shows that a large pattern appears in the price of movements of commodities. Image: Visual Capitalist
S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates and Earnings Growth Trend Line S&P 500 earnings have significantly outpaced historical growth trends. If profits start to slip in the coming quarters, richly valued stocks could face a sharp reckoning. Image: Real Investment Advice
Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations When earnings drift too far from their long-term growth trend, markets tend to close the gap painfully. The gap widening today points to risks still under the radar. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a long, uninterrupted climb since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, with the long-term trend channel suggesting growing risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned Davis Research
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The current elevated Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that U.S. stock valuations are stretched relative to historical averages, a condition that has often preceded lower long-term investor returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned Davis Research
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and Trend Line Support A drawdown to the long-term trendline from the 2009 lows would be painful for U.S. equity investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and Long Term Trend Line Should investors worry that the S&P 500 is very extended from its long term trend line? Image: Richardson Wealth