S&P 500 EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings While political and tax policy changes can have short-term effects, the overall trajectory of U.S. corporate profitability remains largely unaffected in the long run. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend A rise in the ratio of margin debt to the S&P 500 market cap could indicate a bullish outlook for the U.S. stock market, potentially signaling confidence in the market’s upward trajectory. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield and Long-Term Trend This chart suggests that bond yields are well below their long-term trend. Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 Long-Term Trend and Expected Returns Chart suggesting that the 5 and 10-year return forecast is not very exciting. Image: Ned Davis Research
Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities This chart shows that a large pattern appears in the price of movements of commodities. Image: Visual Capitalist
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend Some investors are becoming concerned as the current earnings estimates deviate significantly from the long-term growth trend, along with the effect of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Previous peaks, characterized by deviations in price from the long-term exponential growth trend, can provide valuable insights into the market’s valuation and potential future trends. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Real Index vs. Exponential Growth Trend Are U.S. stocks in a bubble? The real S&P 500 price index is significantly much more extended from its long-term exponential growth trend than in the past. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and Trend Line Support A drawdown to the long-term trendline from the 2009 lows would be painful for U.S. equity investors. Image: Real Investment Advice