S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend A rise in the ratio of margin debt to the S&P 500 market cap could indicate a bullish outlook for the U.S. stock market, potentially signaling confidence in the market’s upward trajectory. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 LTM EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings So far, the S&P 500’s earnings trend is still intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield and Long-Term Trend This chart suggests that bond yields are well below their long-term trend. Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 Long-Term Trend and Expected Returns Chart suggesting that the 5 and 10-year return forecast is not very exciting. Image: Ned Davis Research
Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities This chart shows that a large pattern appears in the price of movements of commodities. Image: Visual Capitalist
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend Some investors are becoming concerned as the current earnings estimates deviate significantly from the long-term growth trend, along with the effect of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Previous peaks, characterized by deviations in price from the long-term exponential growth trend, can provide valuable insights into the market’s valuation and potential future trends. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Real Index vs. Exponential Growth Trend Are U.S. stocks in a bubble? The real S&P 500 price index is significantly much more extended from its long-term exponential growth trend than in the past. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Given the substantial deviation of the real S&P 500 from its long-term exponential trend, it is reasonable to anticipate a return to the mean at some point. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and Trend Line Support A drawdown to the long-term trendline from the 2009 lows would be painful for U.S. equity investors. Image: Real Investment Advice