Inflation-Adjusted Investment in U.S. Stock Market
Inflation-Adjusted Investment in U.S. Stock Market This chart puts into perspective the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return adjusted for CPI inflation (real CAGR = 6.7%). Image: Hondo Tomasz
U.S. Employment Rate 55+
U.S. Employment Rate 55+ The U.S. employment rate of older workers is increasing in a long-term trend. Image: Ernie Tedeschi
U.S. Long Bond
U.S. Long Bond This chart shows the U.S. long bond and its long-term trend line. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP The long-term trend in U.S. nominal GDP growth is a good indicator of U.S. nominal bond yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real Interest Rates Since 1314
Real Interest Rates Since 1314 Since 1314, real interest rates have been on a long-term downward trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 LTM EPS
S&P 500 LTM EPS This chart puts into perspective the long-term (1935-2008) annual trend EPS growth rate of 6.5%. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Projecting the Bull and Bear Market
Projecting the Bull and Bear Market If a US-China trade deal is reached, this chart suggests a rally to the long-term bullish trend line at 3300. Image: Real Investment Advice
Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under Trump?
Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…
Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP
Recession Indicator to Watch: Net Domestic Investment to GDP Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend since 1950. It is not a timing indicator for predicting the end of business cycles. But historicammy, before recessions, it tends to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, Net Domestic Investment to GDP has a…
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today?
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend and reduces productivity.This makes it difficult to see the Fed funds rate exceed the…