Search Results for: potential GDP

U.S. Real Potential GDP U.S. real potential GDP growth is expected to fall to 1.5% from 1.7% today, due to ageing population. Image: Deutsche Bank

% of Potential GDP and Federal Deficit + Balance Sheet Expansion Will the U.S. economy slow down much more in 2022 than people think? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

U.S. Output Gap (Plus Projections) as a Proportion of Potential GDP According to Deutsche Bank, the U.S. output gap is expected to rise above 2%, which tends to lead to higher prices. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Output Gap (% of Potential GDP) Will the Fed take action to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating? Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Output Gap as % of Potential GDP and U.S. Wage Growth (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that US output gap as % of potential GDP tends to lead US wage growth by one year. Image: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. Output Gap (% of potential GDP) and Inflation U.S. output gap (% of potential GDP) tends to lead underlying core PCE by 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Why Potential GDP Has Been Cut in Half Since the 1950’s? The main reason is a lower productivity than previous business cycles, due to: – lower population growth – the service sector is growing faster than the industry sector – lower quality jobs in the service sector have a lower productivity than in the industrial…

Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP? Because monetary and fiscal policies continue to support growth in the USA. So, real GDP could remain close to potential GDP. It also suggests a recession is probably not imminent.

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -7.74% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…