U.S. Real Potential GDP

U.S. Real Potential GDP U.S. real potential GDP growth is expected to fall to 1.5% from 1.7% today, due to ageing population. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Output Gap (% of Potential GDP)

U.S. Output Gap (% of Potential GDP) Will the Fed take action to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating? Image: BofA Global Research

Why Potential GDP Has Been Cut in Half Since the 1950’s?

Why Potential GDP Has Been Cut in Half Since the 1950’s? The main reason is a lower productivity than previous business cycles, due to: – lower population growth – the service sector is growing faster than the industry sector – lower quality jobs in the service sector have a lower productivity than in the industrial…

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP

U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP The disconnect between the value of U.S. financial assets and GDP gives rise to concerns regarding the growing wealth gap, potential systemic risks, and economic stability, while also presenting policy challenges. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy