China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield

China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. Tech Stocks vs. China Tech Stocks

U.S. Tech Stocks vs. China Tech Stocks As the U.S. market experiences an AI frenzy, China’s major technology stocks struggle, reflecting investor pessimism towards China’s economic revival efforts and concerns about AI monetization and trade restrictions. Image: Bloomberg

Stocks – MSCI China Index 12-Month Targets

Stocks – MSCI China Index 12-Month Targets Persistent deflation and geopolitical tensions have led Goldman Sachs to take a more cautious stance on Chinese equities and their earnings potential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Weekly China Flows

China Equity Flows While the initial surge in inflows reflected optimism about China’s economic recovery, subsequent outflows highlight the fragility of market sentiment amidst ongoing economic challenges. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates

China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Equities – China’s Valuations

Equities – China’s Valuations If the MSCI China P/E ratio increases from its current range of 11-12x to a peak of 15-16x, this could represent a potential upside of approximately 40%. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

China as % of MSCI ACWI Market Capitalization

China as % of MSCI ACWI Market Capitalization Assuming that China’s market capitalization as a percentage of the MSCI ACWI rises to its 2018 high of 4.0%, this scenario presents a potential upside of approximately 30% for investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

China Exports YTD

China Exports China’s exports increased by 2.6% since October 2023, mainly due to demand from regions outside the U.S. However, challenges persist, including weak domestic demand and geopolitical tensions that may impact future trade. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Japan Stocks vs. China Stocks

Japan Stocks vs. China Stocks Despite economic challenges and geopolitical risks, Chinese equities have rallied over the past 3 months. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

China GDP Growth

China GDP Growth Excluding the exceptional year of 2020 due to the impact of the Covid pandemic, China’s nominal GDP growth has reached its lowest point since 1976, signaling a shift in China’s economic landscape. Image: Deutsche Bank Research