Search Results for: fed rate

Break-Even Inflation Rate On 10-Year TIPS and Fed Rate Cut (Hike) If inflation expectations continue to fall or remain low, the Fed could probably cut rates further. Image: Gavekal

Fed Rate Cut – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Dec. 11 Meeting Traders see a 6.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC December 11 meeting. Image: CME Group

Fed Rate Cuts and Business Cycle Similar Fed rate cuts in the 1990s should be enough to prolong the business cycle, and should be positive for stocks. Image: LPL Financial LLC

Fed Rates Cut While The S&P 500 Traded Within 2% of a 4 Years All-Time High Don’t fight the Fed, when the Fed cuts rates while the S&P 500 trades at all-time highs. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

U.S.: Market Odds of A Fourth Rate Cut The Fed may be inclined to press the pause button in the “mid-cycle” policy easing. Image: Oxford Economics

Average S&P 500 Performance Following 3rd Fed Rate Cut In the Fed rate cutting cycle, the chart shows the average S&P 500 performance following a 3rd Fed rate cut, with less than two additional cuts, and two or more additional cuts. Image: Strategas

S&P 500 Index Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts This chart shows what the market has done every time the Fed cut rates since 1984. Image: UBS

Number of Fed Rate Hikes/Cuts Expected Over Next 12 Months Fed funds futures imply two further rate cuts over the next 12 months. Image: Credit Suisse Research

Dow Jones Industrial Average Around Second Fed Rate Cut This chart shows that a second rate cut has been bullish. On average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 19% over the next 12 months. Image: Ned Davis Research

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research