Search Results for: trend

MSCI U.S. EPS vs. Trend History shows that earnings well above the trend in the U.S. precede earning plunges. Image: Barclays Research

S&P 500 Long-Term Trend and Expected Returns Chart suggesting that the 5 and 10-year return forecast is not very exciting. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Tax Adjusted EPS vs. Trend Interesting chart showing that S&P 500 tax adjusted earnings are well above the trend in the United States, and have historically preceded earning plunges. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

NFIB – U.S. Small Business Economics Trends U.S. small business economy and hiring plans remain strong. Image: BCA Research

Long-Term Trends in the Price of Commodities This chart shows that a large pattern appears in the price of movements of commodities. Image: Visual Capitalist

The Stock Market’s Central Trend The chart shows that the S&P 500 is only 10% above its long-term trend since 1871. Image: Fidelity Investments

Industrial Search Trends Looking Optimistic This chart shows the rise in search interest in the U.S.. That’s good news after a fall in 2018, because industrial search trends tend to lead realized growth by a decent margin. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread This interesting chart shows the Google trends interest for the “yield curve” compared to the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread. If history helps us predict the future, the next market peak could be in 2021 or later, maybe. Image: Ken Fisher

The Secular Trend for U.S. Interest Rates This nice chart shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield against the natural rate (nominal R-Star) and monetary velocity. In a sense, it explains the secular trend for U.S. interest rates. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales decreased to 1.3% YoY, but the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.