S&P 500 EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings The S&P 500’s earnings trend remains robust, with projections indicating continued growth near the upper limits of its long-term trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and Trend Channel Deutsche Bank’s bullish outlook sees the S&P 500 at 7,000 by year-end 2025, driven by anticipated earnings growth—a forecast compelling enough to catch bears’ attention. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Given that the S&P 500 CAPE ratio is experiencing one of the largest deviations from its long-term exponential growth trend in recorded history, it is reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Image: Real Investment Advice
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months 50% of FMS investors expect stagflation in the global economy over the next 12 months, marked by stagnant growth and high inflation, while 34% foresee stagnation, leading to a cautious investment approach. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate Deutsche Bank has increased its year-end 2024 target for the S&P 500 index to 5,750, up from 5,500, driven by continued robust corporate performance and strong investor demand. Image: Deutsche Bank
VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches, driven by heightened market uncertainty. Image: BofA Global Research
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend Some investors are becoming concerned as the current earnings estimates deviate significantly from the long-term growth trend, along with the effect of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality Trends in MSCI AC World Index (Global Equities) July has historically been a strong month for global equities, offering opportunities for investors to capture potential gains. Image: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy
S&P 500 Real Index vs. Exponential Growth Trend Are U.S. stocks in a bubble? The real S&P 500 price index is significantly much more extended from its long-term exponential growth trend than in the past. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 EPS vs. Trend Do consensus EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 accurately reflect an optimistic outlook, or are they overly optimistic? Image: J.P. Morgan