S&P 500 Trend Channel The sharp rally has brought the S&P 500 back to the bottom of its nearly four-year uptrend channel. If buyers defend the level, the rally could have further room to run. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Trend Strength by Market Cap US small caps are leading the breadth picture, with 67% now trading above the 200-day moving average, the highest reading since 2021. That’s a healthy signal, but it doesn’t guarantee the outperformance will last. Image: Hi Mount Research
S&P 500 Index and Trend Channels What we are seeing in U.S. stocks looks more like consolidation than the start of a lasting downturn, with investors digesting recent gains and adjusting their outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations When earnings drift too far from their long-term growth trend, markets tend to close the gap painfully. The gap widening today points to risks still under the radar. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a long, uninterrupted climb since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, with the long-term trend channel suggesting growing risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned Davis Research
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The current elevated Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that U.S. stock valuations are stretched relative to historical averages, a condition that has often preceded lower long-term investor returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months 50% of FMS investors expect stagflation in the global economy over the next 12 months, marked by stagnant growth and high inflation, while 34% foresee stagnation, leading to a cautious investment approach. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice