VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches, driven by heightened market uncertainty. Image: BofA Global Research
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend Some investors are becoming concerned as the current earnings estimates deviate significantly from the long-term growth trend, along with the effect of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Previous peaks, characterized by deviations in price from the long-term exponential growth trend, can provide valuable insights into the market’s valuation and potential future trends. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality Trends in MSCI AC World Index (Global Equities) July has historically been a strong month for global equities, offering opportunities for investors to capture potential gains. Image: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy
S&P 500 Real Index vs. Exponential Growth Trend Are U.S. stocks in a bubble? The real S&P 500 price index is significantly much more extended from its long-term exponential growth trend than in the past. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Given the substantial deviation of the real S&P 500 from its long-term exponential trend, it is reasonable to anticipate a return to the mean at some point. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 EPS vs. Trend Do consensus EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 accurately reflect an optimistic outlook, or are they overly optimistic? Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend A rise in the ratio of margin debt to the S&P 500 market cap could indicate a bullish outlook for the U.S. stock market, potentially signaling confidence in the market’s upward trajectory. Image: Topdown Charts
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months Stagflation remains consensus among FMS investors. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 LTM EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings So far, the S&P 500’s earnings trend is still intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation