S&P 500 and Trend Channel The S&P 500 has maintained a strong upward trajectory since the Global Financial Crisis. Even if growth moderates, the long-term trend remains intact, suggesting continued strength in the index’s performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The widening gap between current earnings forecasts and historical growth trends is fueling investor concerns about the sustainability of these optimistic projections. Image: Real Investment Advice
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The Shiller CAPE ratio is currently above historical averages. Although valuation metrics aren’t precise timing tools, investors should note that extended periods of high valuations often result in reduced future returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate For over two years, the S&P 500 has maintained a consistent trend channel, indicating a strong market despite concerns of potential overvaluation. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings The S&P 500’s earnings trend remains robust, with projections indicating continued growth near the upper limits of its long-term trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months 50% of FMS investors expect stagflation in the global economy over the next 12 months, marked by stagnant growth and high inflation, while 34% foresee stagnation, leading to a cautious investment approach. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches, driven by heightened market uncertainty. Image: BofA Global Research
Seasonality Trends in MSCI AC World Index (Global Equities) July has historically been a strong month for global equities, offering opportunities for investors to capture potential gains. Image: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy
S&P 500 EPS vs. Trend Do consensus EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 accurately reflect an optimistic outlook, or are they overly optimistic? Image: J.P. Morgan