Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The current earnings estimates deviate significantly from the long-term growth trend, causing unease among bullish investors concerned about the sustainability and justification of these elevated projections. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality Trends in MSCI AC World Index (Global Equities) The previously challenging seasonality headwinds faced by global equities are now turning into favorable tailwinds, potentially boosting market performance as we enter the final quarter. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend The expansion of the annual rate of change in margin debt after a contraction can be seen as a bullish signal in the U.S. stock market. Image: Topdown Charts
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months Stagflation remains consensus among FMS investors. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 EPS vs. Trend S&P 500 earnings remain well above the trend line so far. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 LTM EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings So far, the S&P 500’s earnings trend is still intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings – S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Net Income Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate Deviation from Trend (Leading Indicator) The change in fed funds rate suggests an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
CAPE Valuations vs. S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend It is still reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean, as valuations remain stretched. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend It is still reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean, as valuations remain stretched. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Cyclicals Earnings with Trend Are consensus earnings estimates far too optimistic? Image: Deutsche Bank