FX Impact from AI Disruption to Services As AI pushes the marginal cost of cognitive work lower, the UK stands out: its services-heavy economy leaves sterling the most exposed to disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Price vs. Gold Composite FX Breadth Indicator Gold’s role is shifting: it’s no longer just a safe haven but a cornerstone of monetary stability as central banks keep adding to their reserves in an increasingly fragile global system. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Global FX Volatility In the current environment of low inflation and low interest rates, volatility in foreign exchange markets hits record low. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Volatility – VIX vs. VIXEQ Single-stock volatility is rising faster than the VIX as leadership rotates from tech toward energy names and companies tied to real assets. Volatility beneath the surface says more about market uncertainty than the VIX right now. Image: Bloomberg
Reserves in Different Currencies While the USD share of global FX reserves has slipped somewhat, it remains close to 60% and continues to be the leading global reserve currency by a wide margin. Image: Deutsche Bank
Currency Markets and U.S. Elections FX markets are pricing in a Biden presidency and a blue sweep as well. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Sentiment – U.S. Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) The EU recovery fund provides more support for the euro. But is the reign of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency under threat? Image: BofA Global Research FX and Rates Sentiment Survey
Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange and Commodities Outperformance Stocks, bonds, FX and commodities outperformed in 2019. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research