Search Results for: uncertainty

Equity Market Volatility Related to Uncertainty over Government Spending Equity market volatility may spike when the debt ceiling is under discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Price Returns in Periods of Elevated Geopolitical Uncertainty Historically, the impact of elevated geopolitical events on the S&P 500 has tended to be short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index High policy uncertainty can lead to recessions. Currently, U.S. economic policy uncertainty is higher than during the financial crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Global Political Uncertainty Index vs. VIX This chart shows the wide divergence between the Global Political Uncertainty Index and VIX since 2015. More volatility ahead? Image: Legg Mason

Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Central Bank Uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty is at record highs, while Central Bank uncertainty is at record lows. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Image: Financial Times

VIX Seasonality Historically, the VIX has tended to rise in the months preceding U.S. presidential elections, likely due to heightened uncertainty. Will this seasonal pattern repeat this year? Image: Topdown Charts