Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks

Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Picture source: Societe Generale Asset Research

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…

What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think

What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think US-China trade uncertainty is the enemy of growth, and the impact of tariffs will weigh on corporate profits. But it looks like we’ll avert an earnings recession in 2019 if a trade deal with China is reached this summer. Picture…

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Skin in the Game” | Talks at Google

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Skin in the Game” | Talks at Google Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is an essayist and former trader, who focuses on probability, uncertainty and randomness. In this Talks at Google, he speaks about his latest book, “Skin in the Game.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uv6KLbkvua8