S&P 500 Price Returns in Periods of Elevated Geopolitical Uncertainty Historically, the impact of elevated geopolitical events on the S&P 500 has tended to be short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index High policy uncertainty can lead to recessions. Currently, U.S. economic policy uncertainty is higher than during the financial crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Political Uncertainty Index vs. VIX This chart shows the wide divergence between the Global Political Uncertainty Index and VIX since 2015. More volatility ahead? Image: Legg Mason
Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Central Bank Uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty is at record highs, while Central Bank uncertainty is at record lows. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Image: Financial Times
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums Equity risk premiums are still elevated. An improvement in growth expectations and falling uncertainty should compress ERPs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Falling uncertainty and an improvement in growth expectations should compress the equity risk premium. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research