U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management
Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Central Bank Uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty is at record highs, while Central Bank uncertainty is at record lows. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Picture source: Financial Times
Survey: View on the Global Economy In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents thinks that “the global uncertainty shock has been so persistent that lasting damage has been done and policy action will be too little, too late.” Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Consumers and Large Durables Good news for the U.S. economy! American consumers are buying large durables again, despite tariffs and trade uncertainty. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
World Central Bank Gold Holdings In the current environment, where uncertainty surrounding emerging market currencies is high, this chart shows the robust EM central bank demand for gold. Picture source: Deutsche Bank
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…
Higher Tariffs on U.S.-China Trade Could Hurt World GDP This chart shows the impact and uncertainty by 2021-2022 from maintaining 25% tariffs and more. Picture source: Bloomberg
What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think US-China trade uncertainty is the enemy of growth, and the impact of tariffs will weigh on corporate profits. But it looks like we’ll avert an earnings recession in 2019 if a trade deal with China is reached this summer. Picture…
