U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Central Bank Uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty is at record highs, while Central Bank uncertainty is at record lows. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Image: Financial Times
Financial Conditions and Capital Expenditures Easier financial conditions don’t boost capex, amid the current uncertainty over tariffs and the slowdown in global economies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Passive Over Active Funds History suggests that investor outflows from active funds are smallest after periods of high policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey: View on the Global Economy In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents thinks that “the global uncertainty shock has been so persistent that lasting damage has been done and policy action will be too little, too late.” Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Consumers and Large Durables Good news for the U.S. economy! American consumers are buying large durables again, despite tariffs and trade uncertainty. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
World Central Bank Gold Holdings In the current environment, where uncertainty surrounding emerging market currencies is high, this chart shows the robust EM central bank demand for gold. Image: Deutsche Bank
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research