Search Results for: uncertainty

MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Image: Financial Times

Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies continue to adopt a cautious stance, as equity positioning remains at the 24th percentile amid ongoing market uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds U.S. stocks are at their strongest relative to bonds since Trump’s inauguration, supported by persistent risk appetite and the perception of U.S. market resilience amid global uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg

Monthly U.S. Equity Mutual Fund and ETF Flows Recently, U.S. equity fund flows have been weak, with sustained outflows driven by trade policy uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Inflation Expectations U.S. inflation expectations have declined over the past month, making consumers more optimistic than in April. However, sentiment is still weaker than six months ago, with uncertainty persisting due to ongoing tariff policies. Image: Yahoo Finance

Federal Reserve Broad Real Effective Trade-Weighted Dollar Both historical trends and current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. dollar is entering a period of decline. Structural fiscal challenges, policy uncertainty, and cyclical patterns all point to further weakness ahead. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes poorly for overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard

Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives Higher growth expectations raise bond yields because investors demand greater compensation for potential inflation and uncertainty about future interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the vulnerability of large companies in the current economic climate. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation U.S. stock correlations have recently surged to their highest levels since late 2022, indicating that stocks are moving more in tandem than usual—a trend that typically emerges during periods of heightened uncertainty or market stress. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Total Known ETF Holdings of Gold Over the past three weeks, gold ETFs have seen net outflows as investors took profits after a major price rally. However, investor interest in gold remains strong for diversification and as a hedge against uncertainty. Image: J.P. Morgan