Global Economic Cycle

Global Economic Cycle This chart suggests where countries stand in the current economic cycle. Image: Moody’s Analytics

U.S. Economic Cycles Since 1854

U.S. Economic Cycles Since 1854 This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. economic cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

The Credit Cycle Is Leading the Economic Cycle

The Credit Cycle Is Leading the Economic Cycle This great chart shows that an economic slowdows risk is rising. When delinquency rates on consumer loans reach a low, there’s a high probability of a recession on the horizon. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Valuation and Global Asset Price Cycle

Valuation and Global Asset Price Cycle Interesting chart showing the current average overvaluation estimates across equities, bonds and house prices in major advanced economies. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions

S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. The next downturn could hit the U.S. stock market much harder than the economy. Image: Irrelevant Investor LLC