Emerging Markets Monetary Policy vs. Economic Cycle (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that EM monetary policy easing is likely to increase economic activity in the coming months. Image: Topdown Charts
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Payrolls Change in U.S. Economic Cycle Nonfarm payrolls have averaged 184k the past 12 months, more than the cycle average of 170k. This does not happen in front of recessions. Image: LPL Financial LLC
ISM Manufacturing Index and Credit Returns Across Economic Cycles Since 2004 If investors get the ISM Manufacturing right, they do well. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Global Economic Cycle This chart suggests where countries stand in the current economic cycle. Image: Moody’s Analytics
U.S. Economic Cycles Since 1854 This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. economic cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
The Credit Cycle Is Leading the Economic Cycle This great chart shows that an economic slowdows risk is rising. When delinquency rates on consumer loans reach a low, there’s a high probability of a recession on the horizon. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Total Debt to GDP Ratio and Economic Growth by Cycle This nice chart clearly shows that U.S. GDP is weaker today than in the past, despite higher debt levels. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Treasury Yields Since 2003 Including U.S. Cycles and Key Trends Chart suggesting that the current move in U.S. Treasuries coincide with the recovery phase of the U.S. economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Global Industrial Cycle and Copper vs. Equities Chart suggesting that copper should outperform equities in a global industrial rebound. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Wage Growth and Business Cycles Despite the U.S. economic expansion is now the longest in history, wage growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC