Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers are adopting a positive market outlook by increasing their net long positions in U.S. equity futures, betting on rising prices in the equity markets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Treasury Bond Future – 10Y Futures Positions Speculators have significantly increased their short positions in U.S. Treasury 10Y futures, reflecting a strong bearish sentiment among traders. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank’s forecast for the federal funds rate is significantly more hawkish than many mainstream projections, anticipating modest reductions in 2025. Image: Deutsche Bank
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve Market participants are projecting that the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate, which marks the end of the rate cut cycle, will be around 3%. Image: The Daily Shot
Nasdaq-100 Index, Short Interest as a Percent of Shares Outstanding The falling short interest in the Nasdaq 100 is seen as a potential bearish signal, as it reduces a source of support for the market and makes stocks more vulnerable to negative news and price declines. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 and CFTC CME E-mini S&P 500 Asset Manager Institutional Net Total/Futures The net long position held by institutional asset managers on E-mini S&P 500 futures has been rising, with the potential to reach the peak positioning level observed in early 2020. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Equity Futures – Asset Managers U.S. equity futures positions of asset managers are extremely stretched, raising concerns about excessive optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity Team
Nasdaq 100 Net Long Futures Contracts Leveraged funds and asset managers have different positions on Nasdaq 100 futures. Leveraged funds are currently very net short on Nasdaq 100 futures, while asset managers have a less bullish but still net long position. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning While leveraged funds and asset managers are less bullish on Nasdaq 100 futures, they still maintain a net long position. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Implied Policy Rates – Federal Funds Futures Market expectations for Fed policy have swung dramatically over the past few months. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management