Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers

Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Even with the recent rally and record highs in US equities, asset managers’ positions in U.S. equity futures are still lower than they were at the beginning of the year. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest

S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if shorts are forced to cover. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Fed Rate Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures

Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5–3.75%, in line with their elevated neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank

VIX Futures Curve

VIX Futures Curve Market participants are anticipating a potential decline in volatility, reflecting hopes for reduced uncertainty and stabilization of trade-related concerns impacting markets. Image: The Daily Shot

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1) Liquidity

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1) Liquidity Thinning liquidity in financial markets exacerbates downside risks by increasing the likelihood of abrupt and severe price movements, particularly during economic or geopolitical shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price

Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price The combination of increased tariffs, supply constraints, and strong demand is creating a challenging environment for the lumber market, leading to significant price increases that are expected to continue throughout the year. Image: The Daily Shot

Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions

Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions Last week, leveraged funds and asset managers continued to hold significant net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Fed Funds Futures

Fed Funds Futures Markets are still pricing in Fed rate cuts for 2025, but expectations have been scaled back due to persistent inflation concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank

Currency Futures Positioning

Currency Futures Positioning Despite already high U.S. dollar positioning, Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast for the U.S. dollar, expecting it to rally by about 5% in the next 12 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation