Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Lower tariff rates and a dovish shift at the Fed could set the stage for rate cuts below 3.5% by year‑end, assuming inflation keeps drifting toward target and growth stays soft. Image: Deutsche Bank
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Equity positioning is far from stretched. Asset managers haven’t returned to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with resilient growth, easier policy, and firm earnings, the rally may have more room to run into 2026. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum in small-cap futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning Despite recent profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain heavily net long in Nasdaq 100 futures, suggesting continued confidence in technology and growth stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain strongly net long on S&P 500 futures, signaling a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank
Copper Futures Copper prices declined significantly after it became clear that refined copper—essential for many industries—would not be subject to new U.S. tariffs, causing a sharp shift in market supply and demand expectations. Image: Daily Chartbook, Koyfin
S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if shorts are forced to cover. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions and S&P 500 Relative to Its 200-DMA While leveraged funds and asset managers have slightly scaled back their bullish stance, they still maintain substantial net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
VIX Futures Curve Market participants are anticipating a potential decline in volatility, reflecting hopes for reduced uncertainty and stabilization of trade-related concerns impacting markets. Image: The Daily Shot