Fed Policy Rate Change over 6 Months Prices in (Futures) vs. Actual Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates, but the market decides when to cut rates. This chart shows that rate expectations are highly predictive six months in advance. See also “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin.” Picture source:…
The Fed Fund Futures Market Is Pricing Three Rate Cuts Over the Next 12 Months According to CME Group, the Fed fund futures market is pricing three rate cuts over the next 12 months. See also “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin“ Picture source: Bianco Research LLC
S&P 500 Futures – Massive Pre-market Fear Since 1982 Since 1982, there have been two time periods of this massive pre-market fear: in 2002 and 2008, during the bear market. Picture source: Sentimentrader
Expected Fed Funds Rate as of July 10, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2020 imply an expected rate of only 1.80%. Click the Picture to Enlarge
Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.26% (traders are pricing in more than four full cuts). See also “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin.”
