Brent 5-Year Futures Price

Brent 5-Year Futures Price This chart shows that long-dated oil prices stayed relatively flat after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Liquidity in U.S. Equity Futures

Liquidity in U.S. Equity Futures Liquidity in U.S. equity futures collapsed in early 2018. It has remained at very low levels. The lack of liquidity could lead to violent market moves. Image: Deutsche Bank

Fed Monetary Policy Rate Change over 6 Months Prices in (Futures) vs. Actual

Fed Monetary Policy Rate Change over 6 Months Prices in (Futures) vs. Actual Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates, but the market decides when to cut rates. This chart shows that rate expectations are highly predictive six months in advance. You may also like “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles…

Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of 1.36%. Click the Image to Enlarge

Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds

Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now. Image: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.26% (traders are pricing in more than four full cuts). You may also like “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin.”

The Market is Almost Wrong about What the Fed Will Do

The Market is Almost Wrong about What the Fed Will Do Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates. But the market decides when to cut rates: “Markets have accurately priced in cuts before easing cycles begin.” Keep in mind that rate cut expectations are highly predictive six months in advance. You may also like “Fed Policy…