S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if shorts are forced to cover. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5–3.75%, in line with their elevated neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions and S&P 500 Relative to Its 200-DMA While leveraged funds and asset managers have slightly scaled back their bullish stance, they still maintain substantial net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
VIX Futures Curve Market participants are anticipating a potential decline in volatility, reflecting hopes for reduced uncertainty and stabilization of trade-related concerns impacting markets. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1) Liquidity Thinning liquidity in financial markets exacerbates downside risks by increasing the likelihood of abrupt and severe price movements, particularly during economic or geopolitical shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price The combination of increased tariffs, supply constraints, and strong demand is creating a challenging environment for the lumber market, leading to significant price increases that are expected to continue throughout the year. Image: The Daily Shot
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions Last week, leveraged funds and asset managers continued to hold significant net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Futures Markets are still pricing in Fed rate cuts for 2025, but expectations have been scaled back due to persistent inflation concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Currency Futures Positioning Despite already high U.S. dollar positioning, Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast for the U.S. dollar, expecting it to rally by about 5% in the next 12 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg