Nasdaq-100 Index, Short Interest as a Percent of Shares Outstanding The falling short interest in the Nasdaq 100 is seen as a potential bearish signal, as it reduces a source of support for the market and makes stocks more vulnerable to negative news and price declines. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 and CFTC CME E-mini S&P 500 Asset Manager Institutional Net Total/Futures The net long position held by institutional asset managers on E-mini S&P 500 futures has been rising, with the potential to reach the peak positioning level observed in early 2020. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Equity Futures – Asset Managers U.S. equity futures positions of asset managers are extremely stretched, raising concerns about excessive optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity Team
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank’s forecast for the fed funds rate remains more hawkish than many mainstream projections, expecting a single rate cut in December 2024, followed by modest reductions in 2025. Image: Deutsche Bank
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions While showing reduced bullishness, leveraged funds and asset managers maintain a positive market outlook by holding net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Nasdaq 100 Net Long Futures Contracts Leveraged funds and asset managers have different positions on Nasdaq 100 futures. Leveraged funds are currently very net short on Nasdaq 100 futures, while asset managers have a less bullish but still net long position. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning While leveraged funds and asset managers are less bullish on Nasdaq 100 futures, they still maintain a net long position. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Implied Policy Rates – Federal Funds Futures Market expectations for Fed policy have swung dramatically over the past few months. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain very net long S&P 500 futures, suggesting their positive outlook on the future performance of the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve The Federal Reserve has likely reached a stage where it no longer plans to increase interest rates. This potential pause in rate hikes could have significant implications for various economic factors. Image: The Daily Shot