Upside and Downside Risks to the Growth Outlook – SG White & Black Swan Chart The SG swan chart shows upside and downside risks to growth forecasts on a one-year horizon. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is extremely difficult to predict. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The US stock market on October 19, 1987,…
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-valuation.mp4 This powerful model looks into the US stock market and alerts if it is overvalued or undervalued The model shows the valuation percentage to the right and to the left. In the middle, it shows what the probability of each event happening is. Probability is a way to show how often an event will…
S&P 500 1-Month Volatility History Since 1928 and VIX Since 1990 The stock market crash of 1929, the Black Monday of 1987 and the global financial crisis in 2008 were the most extreme events. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-equity-risk-premium.mp4 This fabulous model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note The US stock market equity risk premium is the US stock market excess return for the next 10 years over the US 10-year Treasury Note. This is the premium…