10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The U.S. yield curve typically steepens once the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed becomes more imminent, rather than when the Fed actually stops hiking rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
30-Year U.S. Treasury Total Return Index Over the past four years, 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced their worst loss in over a century, with a decline of 54% in total return. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value According to BofA’s macroeconomic framework, the fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is estimated to be between 4.25% and 4.3%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart Technical analysis suggests that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to decline by the end of 2024, with a potential target between 3.50% and 3.29%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart In a soft landing scenario, BofA forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to decline to 3.78% in 2H24-1H25. It may potentially drop further to 3.22% and then reach 3.00%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been in a secular bear market since February 2022, and it could potentially approach 6% in the coming years. Image: BofA Global Research
Forecast – U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield According to consensus, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to reach 4.20% by the end of 2024. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Daily Chart Given the combination of inflationary pressures, Fed monetary policy, and economic growth, is there potential for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to go higher over the next few weeks? Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast According to Goldman Sachs, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to reach 4.25% by the end of 2024, a forecast that differs slightly from the expectations of the futures market Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Treasury Volatility – MOVE Index The decrease in U.S. rates volatility, as indicated by the MOVE index, could be viewed as a positive development for both the bond market and the overall economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Asset Allocation