U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Brent Oil Future Markets have treated oil and yields as a pair trade since the Middle East conflict began. Hopes of a peace deal could keep the oil-driven move in yields alive for now, but that relationship usually fades once the conflict is resolved. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations, and shifts in credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair 10-year U.S. Treasury yields often push higher in the first six months after a new Fed chair takes office, as markets adjust to a new policy regime. Leadership changes cloud the outlook, and markets price in that uncertainty. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Index and BB to 10-Year Treasury Spread Keeping an eye on the junk to Treasury bond spread can reveal how healthy the U.S. market really is, and where it might be going next. The bond market usually sends signals before stocks react. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future inflation higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing costs. Deficits have a price. Image: Deutsche Bank
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. Treasuries ended a stellar 2025, but few expect a repeat this year. Lower rates may offer some support, but heavy debt issuance, sticky inflation, and ongoing fiscal spending could keep long-end yields from falling much further. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden jump in interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – Where Do You Expect 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields to Be One Year from Now? Deutsche Bank’s latest survey shows that 52% of participants expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise above 4.25% next year, with the bank’s strategists calling for 4.45% by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Treasury Index – Annual Return U.S. Treasuries are on track for their strongest annual performance since 2020, lifted by Fed rate cuts and a cooling labor market that is fueling bets on more monetary easing. Image: Bloomberg
Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy, or a flood of new debt can just as easily push them higher. Image: Deutsche Bank