U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs has projected that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 3.85% by the end of 2024, a forecast that stands in stark contrast to prevailing futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index

MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields The S&P 500 typically struggles when U.S. Treasury yields rise quickly. This is largely due to decreased stock valuation multiples, especially for high-priced mega-cap growth companies that thrive in low-rate environments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The copper-to-gold ratio is often considered a leading indicator for the direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield under certain market conditions. Image: The Daily Shot

Cyclicals vs. Defensives Performance and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Cyclicals vs. Defensives Performance and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The rise in yields is confirming the relative strength of U.S. cyclical stocks as they respond positively to favorable economic indicators while U.S. defensive stocks face pressure. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Treasury Bond Future – 10Y Futures Positions

U.S. Treasury Bond Future – 10Y Futures Positions Speculators have significantly increased their short positions in U.S. Treasury 10Y futures, reflecting a strong bearish sentiment among traders. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value BofA’s macroeconomic framework estimates the fair value of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to be between 4.10% and 4.15%, with a year-end target of 3.75%. Image: BofA Global Research

Treasury QT

Treasury QT The current context suggests that QT can continue even as the Fed begins to cut interest rates, provided that these cuts do not push the policy rate below what is considered neutral. Image: Deutsche Bank

2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield – Fed Funds Rate

2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield – Fed Funds Rate The current spread between the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield and the federal funds rate suggests that the bond market perceives the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy as tight. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management