Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased its resilience by delivering impressive returns this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Rates – 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts BofA forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.25% and the 2-year UST yield at 4.00% by year-end 2024, suggesting the possibility of a downward trend in borrowing costs. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Daily Chart The U.S. 10-year yield is expected to drop from its peak of 5% to 4% by 2024, which could have a significant impact on various sectors of the economy, including mortgage rates, bond markets, and investor sentiment. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.30% by the end of 2023 and 2024, which differs from the expectations of the futures market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Less CPI Given investors’ historic tendency to demand a 200 basis point premium over inflation rates, could rates rise further? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Monthly Chart The gradual approach of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield towards the secular target carries significant implications for various sectors of the economy and financial markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields The negative correlation between the S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury yields has weakened significantly since August. This moderation in the negative correlation may be seen as good news. Image: BofA Global Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which had experienced significant volatility and deviation from its pre-2008 trading range in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, has now reverted back to its previous levels. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
10-Year Treasury Non-Commercial Net Positioning and Market Yield on U.S. Treasury at 10-Year Constant Maturity Given the high level of short positions in 10-year U.S. Treasuries, some investors may find it advantageous to increase the duration of their bond portfolio in a scenario of falling interest rates. Image: Real Investment Advice
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has tended to follow consumer confidence, underscoring the importance of monitoring consumer confidence as a potential indicator of future yield curve movements. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management