U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The rise in the U.S. 10-year real yield anchors valuations: it won’t drag prices lower if earnings keep surging, but it caps multiple expansion and raises the odds of P/E compression if growth disappoints. Image: J.P. Morgan
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship for extended periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Yields While not extreme, the current U.S. real interest rate of about 2% is relatively high, reflecting a restrictive monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation under control. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased its resilience by delivering impressive returns this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E and 10-Year U.S. Real Yield Is the current disconnect between the valuation of U.S. stocks and the impact of real interest rates on the economy expected to be temporary? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward Price/Earnings Ratio Despite higher real rates, the S&P 500’s valuation remains elevated. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Gold Price vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield Rising real yields (inverted) did not have a major impact on the price of gold last year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Real Rates – U.S. Agg. Corporate Avg. Option-Adjusted Spread and 10-Year U.S. Real Yield Rising U.S. real rates could lead to wider credit spreads. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Rates – U.S. 10-Year Nominal and Real Yields Goldman Sachs expects U.S. rates will continue to rise. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research