Global Real Yields Since 1805

Global Real Yields Since 1805 Negative real yields are an “opportunity” for any government to refinance their debt. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On

Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Copper vs. China and Gold vs. U.S. Real Yields

Copper vs. China and Gold vs. U.S. Real Yields Copper price is underperfoming gold, because China 10-year yields and U.S. real yields are falling. Picture source: Topdown Charts

Gold vs. U.S. 10-Year Real Yield

Gold vs. U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The chart shows the nice correlation between the U.S. 10-year real yield (inverted) and the price of gold as a defensive asset Picture source: Saxo Bank

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…

Real Three-month Yield vs. Recessions

Real Three-month Yield vs. Recessions Historically prior to every recession, the three-month yield exceeded inflation by almost 200 basis points since 1960. Today, the real three-month yield (adjusted for inflation) is just above zero. If history helps us to predict the future, then this cycle should not end any time soon. Source: Bloomberg, Myron Scholes