U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims After Yield Curve Inversion Is there a difference this time in the association between an inverted yield curve, usually indicating economic decline, and the potential for job losses? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Recession – Diffusion Index of Every Possible Yield Curve Inversion The increasing number of inverted yield curves is a negative sign, but does not necessarily mean that a recession is imminent. Image: Macrobond
Months of Yield Curve Inversion Before Recession BofA remains bearish as a recession in the United States is becoming increasingly likely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Yield Curve Inversion and Market Drawdowns The U.S. stock market is expected to bottom out well after the 10Y-3M yield curve un-inverts. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Following Yield Curve Inversions Historically, the inversion of the 10Y-3M yield curve is not an immediate sell signal for U.S. stocks. Image: MarketDesk Research
S&P 500 Returns Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions The S&P 500 typically rises in the 12 and 24 months following the 10Y-2Y yield curve inversion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions On average, the S&P 500 continues to rise in the 12 and 24 months following the 10Y-2Y yield curve inversion. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Yield Curve Inversions and U.S. Recessions As the 10Y-2Y yield curve has briefly inverted, is it premature to predict a U.S. recession in 2023? Image: True Insights
Yield Curve Inversions and U.S. Recessions The table shows the significant lag between the first inversion date and the onset of the recession in the United States. Image: Jeroen Blokland
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts An inverted yield curve doesn’t always mean that a recession is imminent. But historically, a sustained yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: Legg Mason
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management