Recession – Diffusion Index of Every Possible Yield Curve Inversion The increasing number of inverted yield curves does not bode well for the U.S. economy. A recession in the United States seems increasingly likely. Image: Macrobond
S&P 500 Returns Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions The S&P 500 typically rises in the 12 and 24 months following the 10Y-2Y yield curve inversion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Following 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversions On average, the S&P 500 continues to rise in the 12 and 24 months following the 10Y-2Y yield curve inversion. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Yield Curve Inversions and U.S. Recessions As the 10Y-2Y yield curve has briefly inverted, is it premature to predict a U.S. recession in 2023? Image: True Insights
Yield Curve Inversions and U.S. Recessions The table shows the significant lag between the first inversion date and the onset of the recession in the United States. Image: Jeroen Blokland
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts An inverted yield curve doesn’t always mean that a recession is imminent. But historically, a sustained yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: Legg Mason
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts. Image: Jeroen Blokland
U.S. Unemployment Change and Real Interest Rate at Time of Yield Curve Inversion Looking at real interest rates can provide some insight about the severity of a recession before it starts. This chart suggests that unemployment could increase significantly during the next recession.
10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel