10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS  (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Picture source: Stifel

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts

Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts Recession tends to start in one to three years after the yield curve inversion. Keep in mind that the yield curve is only one indicator among others of an economic puzzle. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

S&P 500 Around Past Yield Curve Inversions

S&P 500 Around Past Yield Curve Inversions Another interesting chart from J.P. Morgan showing the median move in the S&P 500 around past yield curve inversions and the market peak. Picture source: J.P. Morgan