Yield Curve Inversions and U.S. Recessions

Yield Curve Inversions and U.S. Recessions The table shows the significant lag between the first inversion date and the onset of the recession in the United States. Image: Jeroen Blokland

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts An inverted yield curve doesn’t always mean that a recession is imminent. But historically, a sustained yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: Legg Mason

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts. Image: Jeroen Blokland

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS  (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel