Inflation – CPI Services vs. PPI Services and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid and PPI services tend to lead CPI services by 9 months. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is higher than expected and continues to rebound. Image: Macrobond Financial
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5% in January and suggests faster expansion in January than in December. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (All History) Chart suggesting that the U.S. non-manufacturing sector is slowly improving. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that ISM indices imply a slowdown rather than a recession. Image: BofA Global Research
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP U.S. ISM indices suggest a slowdown in the US growth rate, but not an imminent recession. Image source: ING Economics
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth Chart showing the good correlation between the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (6M lag) and U.S. GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Minus ISM Manufacturing Index and Real U.S. Dollar Index This chart suggests that a strong dollar hurts U.S. manufacturers. Image: Oxford Economics
ISM Manufacturing Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP U.S. services sector suggests that the U.S. economy is weathering the trade war. Image: Institute of International Finance
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Interesting chart showing the spread between the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index over time. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research