Valuation – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 The current undervaluation of U.S. small-caps relative to the S&P 500 presents an attractive investment opportunity for those looking to diversify their portfolios and potentially capture higher returns in the coming years. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 The small-cap Russell 2000 index has faced a notable downturn in December 2024, experiencing a decline of over 8%. This marks its worst monthly performance since September 2022, reflecting a notable shift in investor confidence. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Small Cap Stocks – Russell 2000 > 10% Gain for the Month Bulls are smiling again! The Russell 2000’s 10.9% gain in November is a promising sign for small-cap stocks over the next six months, with an average increase of 11.3% since 1979 and gains occurring 90% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts The current net long positioning of asset managers and leveraged funds in Russell 2000 futures indicates a strong belief in the potential for growth in U.S. small-cap stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E: Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 Small-caps may be an attractive option for long-term investors looking to diversify their investment portfolios, as they offer relatively cheaper valuations compared to large-caps. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Indices The current landscape for value and growth investing reveals a significant and persistent valuation gap, with value stocks trading at lower prices relative to their growth counterparts. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Performance – Ratio of Russell 2000 Index to Nasdaq Composite Small-cap stocks are currently at a record low relative to the Nasdaq Composite. Factors that could drive small-cap stocks to outperform include a rise in M&A and IPOs, robust earnings growth, and changes in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 – Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Outperforms Russell 1000 (Large Caps) by 3% of More Historically, when small caps have outperformed large caps by 3% of more, the S&P 500 has been higher a year later in every instance, with an average gain of 32% since 1979. Image: Carson Investment Research
Small Cap Stocks – Relationship Between Relative Fwd P/E of Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Relative Returns For long-term investors, periods when small-cap stocks are trading at a significant discount to large-cap stocks may offer attractive investment opportunities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Valuation – Russell 2000 Forward P/E The April sell-off has brought the U.S. small-cap forward P/E ratio back below the historical average, suggesting a potential undervaluation of small-cap stocks and creating buying opportunities for long-term investors. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy