Search Results for: prediction

Prediction Market Odds of U.S. Corporate Tax Rate in 2022 Is a corporate tax hike unlikely? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market – Top 10 Predictions for 2021 Will Tesla become the new AOL in 2021? Image: CNBC

Prediction Market Probability that Democrats Have Control Following the 2020 U.S. Election The prediction market probability of the Democrats taking control of the Senate has increased to 32%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Elections – Polls and Prediction Markets The odds of a “blue wave” of Democrat victories in November are rising. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Prediction for U.S. GDP Growth from Q42020 to Q42021 32 leading academic economists do not see significantly higher GDP growth under Donald Trump or Joe Biden, as long as the current control of Congress remains the same. Image: BofA

Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Coronavirus – University of Washington Model Predictions for When Different States Will Reopen This map predicts the ideal dates to relax social distancing in the United States. Deutsche Bank Global Research

Prediction for Near-Term S&P 500 Downside to 2,000 Goldman Sachs suggests that equity markets are unlikely to make new lows, if the U.S. doesn’t have a second surge in infections after the economy reopens. The year-end S&P 500 target remains 3,000. Image: Bloomberg

Here are Blackstone vice chairman Byron Wien’s predictions for 2019 Byron Wien, vice chairman at Blackstone, talks about the Fed and his prediction for the US market in 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7UPX4N3wi0

Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI EM China’s performance relative to emerging markets has closely correlated with Trump’s implied winning probability in the prediction market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research