U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the current disinflationary trend. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Inflation Expectations U.S. inflation expectations have declined over the past month, making consumers more optimistic than in April. However, sentiment is still weaker than six months ago, with uncertainty persisting due to ongoing tariff policies. Image: Yahoo Finance
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will reach 3.8% by December 2025. Although inflation is projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target, wage pressures are cooling and the labor market remains robust. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Adjusted for Inflation Despite gold’s recent rally to $3,000 per ounce in 2025, which happened more quickly than most analysts anticipated, it remains significantly below its all-time inflation-adjusted peak of approximately $3,800 per ounce, set in 1980. Image: Bloomberg
Inflation – U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Rate The declining U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate indicates that market participants expect inflation to moderate, aligning with the Fed’s 2% long-term target. Image: The Daily Shot
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate Breakeven rates, which reflect the market’s inflation expectations, suggest that the fight against rising prices is far from over and will likely continue in the foreseeable future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Inflation Mentions on Earnings Calls Mentions of “inflation” during S&P 500 companies’ earnings calls have plummeted to their lowest levels in years, reflecting a shift in corporate concerns and economic conditions. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. core CPI inflation to be 2.8% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in the impact of tariffs. Without tariffs, their projection for core CPI inflation would be 2.3% by year-end. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Since the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. breakeven inflation has closely tracked crude oil prices, reflecting the significant impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation expectations and overall economic conditions. Image: Bloomberg