U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform?​

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform? The chart shows that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) usually outperform regular Treasuries when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is below 2%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation over the next 10 years. Picture source: Movement Capital LLC

U.S. Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations

U.S. Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations Interesting chart showing the correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations. Picture source: Foundation Alpha LLC.

U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation

U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation since 1926

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation since 1926 Great chart showing the hypothetical value of $1 invested in stocks, bonds, and bills, at the beginning of 1926. Warren Buffett is right when he says that stocks are generally better than bonds. Picture souce: Morningstar