U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
Flexible and Sticky Inflation Sticky inflation (core services) remains far too high, while flexible inflation (core goods) is falling significantly. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Core CPI Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant decline in U.S. core PCE and core CPI. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – ISM Services Business Prices vs. Copper The rise of copper prices is a cause for concern as it can lead to higher prices for a variety of goods and services. Image: Steno Research
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate U.S. breakeven inflation expectations are rising. Will the Fed overshoot on rate hikes? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Recession – 3-Month T-Bills Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation and 10-Year Treasury Rate Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation Historically, there has never been a recession in the United States with negative real interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Inflation – U.S. Trimmed and Median CPI Trimmed and median CPI remain sticky so far, which suggests that further rate hikes may be needed to tame inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – Net % Expecting Higher Global CPI Almost all FMS investors expect inflation rates to fall. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
M2 Money Supply and CPI Inflation The big collapse in the M2 money supply still suggests lower inflation ahead. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 12 Months Before and 18 Months After Inflation Peaks Since WWII, the S&P 500 has bottomed seven months after the peak in CPI inflation. Image: Stifel