Search Results for: inflation

Gold vs. S&P 500 and Inflation Gold is considered to be a hedge against inflation and tends to outperform equities in environments when inflation gets above trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real M2 Growth and Inflation The United States is exposed to the risk of higher inflation, as the fiscal and monetary policies are the most expansionary. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Fed Funds vs. Employment/Population + Inflation This chart suggests the optimal monetary policy, while Fed officials do not anticipate any rate hikes until 2022. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…

U.S. Average P/E Ratio and Inflation Range This chart suggests that rising inflation is good for P/E until inflation exceeds 3%. Image: Credit Suisse Research

Fed Deflation Probability (Inflation Below Zero) This chart suggests the high probability that the U.S. inflation rate will fall below zero over the next 12 months.

CPI vs. Conference Board Inflation Expectations Coordinated monetary and fiscal easing should lift inflation higher in this cycle. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics

Inflation in this Cycle (DM GDP Deflator) Morgan Stanley expects the return of inflation after the Great COVID-19 Recession (GCR). Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Inflation and Capacity Utilization This chart suggests that inflation will not be a problem for many years, as economists watch capacity utilization indicators for signs of inflation pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Inflation Assets vs. Deflation Assets The leadership remains deflationary, and the laggards remain inflationary. Deflation assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield. Inflation assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy