Search Results for: inflation

Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions Chart suggesting that supply chain disruptions have no material impact on inflation. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. CPI Inflation Chart suggesting lower inflation ahead. Image: Oxford Economics

Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goods and Core CPI Services 20 years of almost no inflation in goods. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996).  It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge

U.S. Output Gap (% of potential GDP) and Inflation U.S. output gap (% of potential GDP) tends to lead underlying core PCE by 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Inflation – The Rising Cost of U.S. Education and Health Care The costs of health care and education have risen faster than other goods. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Deflation Assets vs. Inflation Assets The leadership is still deflationary, and the laggards are inflationary. Deflation Assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield.Inflation Assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Output Gap and Inflation This chart shows that actual U.S. GDP is higher than potential GDP. Historically, a positive output gap leads to inflation. Image: Richardson GMP

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility Since 1987, the S&P 500 6-month realised volatility has been the lowest, when U.S. CPI growth has been in the 2 to 3 per cent range. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research