U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate U.S. breakeven inflation rates are not just easing. They have been falling sharply, pointing to markets pricing in weaker inflation ahead, a welcome sign for stability and growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil rises, inflation tends to follow, pushing up energy and transport costs that ripple across the economy. That dynamic often pressures equities, as margins tighten and consumers pull back. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading. It has now surged to its highest since 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar (Measured by Inflation): Invested vs. Uninvested Gold hasn’t lost its glow, but U.S. stocks have shone brighter since 1928. Look far enough ahead, and the edge moves to assets that build value, not just store it. Over time, innovation compounds more powerfully than preservation. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation: 1970 vs. Today The modern economy shows greater resilience to inflation pressures compared to the 1970s, but whether it avoids stagflation depends on how long the current geopolitical conflict lasts. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t eased much. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often fade faster than people expect. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would linger and growth would take a bigger hit. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation – Cleveland Median CPI vs. M2 Savings Deposits When fiscal policy drives money creation, inflation risk jumps. Spending and liquidity rise together, and before long, too much money chases too few goods. Recent U.S. money trends point toward price pressures ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services Prices vs. Super Core PCE History shows the U.S. ISM Services Prices Index tends to lead super core inflation by five months, which means sticky prices aren’t going anywhere soon. Image: Deutsche Bank