U.S. CPI Inflation

U.S. CPI Inflation Chart suggesting lower inflation ahead. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…

Deflation Assets vs. Inflation Assets

Deflation Assets vs. Inflation Assets The leadership is still deflationary, and the laggards are inflationary. Deflation Assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield.Inflation Assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Output Gap and Inflation

U.S. Output Gap and Inflation This chart shows that actual U.S. GDP is higher than potential GDP. Historically, a positive output gap leads to inflation. Image: Richardson GMP

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility Since 1987, the S&P 500 6-month realised volatility has been the lowest, when U.S. CPI growth has been in the 2 to 3 per cent range. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research