U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate

U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate There are indications that inflation pressures are reemerging, and investors are anticipating higher inflation in the future. This is reflected in the rise of two-year U.S. breakeven inflation expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Core PCE Inflation U.S. core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, has already fallen below 2% over a six-month period, which is positive news. Image: BofA Global Research

Contributions to Year-on-Year U.S. Core PCE Inflation

Contributions to Year-on-Year U.S. Core PCE Inflation Goldman Sachs maintains its projection for a decrease in U.S. core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which could have significant implications for the broader economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflation Forecasts

Inflation Forecasts If a mild recession were to occur in the United States, it could potentially lead to a lower U.S. core PCE inflation than anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank

Inflation – CPI Forecast

GDP Growth and CPI Forecasts In 2024, global growth is expected to mildly decelerate, followed by a gradual recovery in 2025. Additionally, inflation is projected to gradually decrease across most countries. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Total Return and Historical Inflation Peaks

S&P 500 Total Return and Historical Inflation Peaks Historically, U.S. stocks have shown a tendency to increase when there is no recession following a peak in inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Flexible and Sticky Inflation

Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Core CPI

Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Core CPI Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant decline in U.S core PCE and core CPI, which could have significant implications for the broader economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts If the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes, the U.S. headline CPI is expected to consistently exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, potentially creating challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy