U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 U.S. core PCE inflation forecast to 3.5% (from 3.0%) on tariff risks and now foresees three Fed rate cuts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Adjusted for Inflation Despite gold’s recent rally to $3,000 per ounce in 2025, which happened more quickly than most analysts anticipated, it remains significantly below its all-time inflation-adjusted peak of approximately $3,800 per ounce, set in 1980. Image: Bloomberg
Inflation – U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Rate The declining U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate indicates that market participants expect inflation to moderate, aligning with the Fed’s 2% long-term target. Image: The Daily Shot
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate Breakeven rates, which reflect the market’s inflation expectations, suggest that the fight against rising prices is far from over and will likely continue in the foreseeable future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Inflation Mentions on Earnings Calls Mentions of “inflation” during S&P 500 companies’ earnings calls have plummeted to their lowest levels in years, reflecting a shift in corporate concerns and economic conditions. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. core CPI inflation to be 2.8% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in the impact of tariffs. Without tariffs, their projection for core CPI inflation would be 2.3% by year-end. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Since the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. breakeven inflation has closely tracked crude oil prices, reflecting the significant impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation expectations and overall economic conditions. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. core CPI inflation is expected to be around 3% by the end of the first quarter of 2025. While inflation is expected to decrease, the changes are likely to be gradual and modest. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inequality – Inflation Adjusted Household Equity Ownership by Brackets Wealth inequality in the U.S. may be further exacerbated by the current stock market ownership structure, where 88% of household equity is controlled by just the top 10% of income earners. Image: Real Investment Advice
University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations by Political Affiliation U.S. household inflation expectations are characterized by high volatility and are sensitive to recent price changes, particularly in gas prices. Additionally, political bias can heavily influence these expectations. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management