U.S. Output Gap and Inflation

U.S. Output Gap and Inflation This chart shows that actual U.S. GDP is higher than potential GDP. Historically, a positive output gap leads to inflation. Image: Richardson GMP

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility Since 1987, the S&P 500 6-month realised volatility has been the lowest, when U.S. CPI growth has been in the 2 to 3 per cent range. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio In periods of low inflation, the P/E ratio is higher. Conversely, high inflation tends to depress the P/E ratio. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Inflation since 2000

U.S. Inflation since 2000 U.S. households are more concerned about the rising cost of medical care and housing, than overall inflation. Image: Financial Times

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…

Distribution of U.S. Inflation Rate

Distribution of U.S. Inflation Rate Is inflation really dead? It may not be dead forever. This great chart shows that the distribution of the U.S. inflation rate has been fairly good since 1871. Image: Fidelity Investments