Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts BofA forecasts that U.S. core PCE will move higher in the second half of 2024 due to unfavorable base effects, but risks are substantially lower compared to the two years prior. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker has dropped below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, a key element of its monetary policy designed to maintain price stability and anchor inflation expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Core CPI Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a continuous decline in U.S. core PCE and core CPI suggests a potential slowdown in inflationary pressures, which could have significant implications for the overall economic outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation – Core PCE and Core CPI Inflation is trending downward towards the Fed’s 2% target, a crucial aspect of its monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability and anchoring inflation expectations at a moderate level. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Core CPI Inflation The June CPI report suggests the price trend is aligning with the Federal Reserve’s goals, leading Goldman Sachs analysts to anticipate the Fed’s first rate cut in September. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The shrinking contributions from shelter and private transportation services are expected to result in a slowdown of U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.8% by the end of 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Headline Inflation and U.S. Core PCE inflation According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. PCE inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target by 2025, potentially leading to a more predictable and stable economic environment for U.S. consumers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Wages vs. U.S. Inflation Americans are facing real pay cuts due to high inflation, which has been rising faster than wages over the past couple of years. This has significantly eroded the real wages of most American workers. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% by 2026, with U.S. core CPI projected at 2.4% and U.S. headline CPI at 2.4%. Image: Deutsche Bank