U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Survey – U.S. Inflation and EU Inflation Inflation expectations are diverging sharply between the United States and Europe. While inflation in the U.S. shows signs of recovery, European expectations have notably declined, dipping below 2% for the first time since late 2021. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate While U.S. inflation breakeven rates have been moving higher recently, inflation expectations remain relatively well-anchored, which is crucial for maintaining price stability and economic confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Developed Market Core Inflation Rates In most major economies, inflation rates have significantly eased. While challenges remain, current trends suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually coming under control. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of U.S. CPI Inflation Over the Next 5 Years Market pricing indicates a substantial likelihood that future U.S. headline CPI inflation rates will exceed 3%, with a 33% probability over the next five years. Image: Goldman Sachs
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to have decelerated significantly in November, reinforcing expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy is effectively controlling inflation. Image: Nomura
U.S. CPI Inflation While U.S. inflation echoes the 1970s, different forces are at play. However, the prospect of 2025 tariffs and other economic policies warns against complacency. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE Deflator The recent stalling of disinflationary progress in U.S. core PCE deflator could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation Forecasts If Trump implements a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on imports from China, it could push U.S. core PCE inflation above 3% in 2025. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Headline and Core CPI Inflation The latest inflation data for October 2024 indicates that U.S. inflation has remained firm, showing a slight uptick rather than continuing its irregular descent, suggesting that the Fed’s battle against inflation is not yet over. Image: Bloomberg
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The combination of declining contributions from key sectors like shelter and transportation is expected to lead to a notable slowdown in U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research