S&P 500 and Global Money Supply

S&P 500 and Global Money Supply Chart suggesting that global money supply tends to push U.S. equities higher. Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. True Money Supply and Nominal GDP Growth

U.S. True Money Supply and Nominal GDP Growth This chart suggests that money supply outpacing U.S. nominal GDP tends to be bullish for asset prices. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Money Supply and Inflation

Money Supply and Inflation Aging is inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate, and deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity. If the money supply grows faster than real output, then it causes inflation. And if there is a structural bottom for commodities and inflation, value could outperform growth. Image: Fidelity Investments

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This is not good news for GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland

M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions

M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions Great chart showing the correlation between M1 money supply and the yield curve. The key factor for inverted yield curves is tight money. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland

What Does M1 Money Supply Growth Tell Us About the Next Recession?

What Does M1 Money Supply Growth Tell Us About the Next Recession? M1 is the money supply that includes types of money commonly used for payment, basically currency outside banks and checking account balances. This is not the perfect recession indicator, but in recent history, it turns negative at least one year before a recession.

EUR/USD and Euro Area M3

EUR/USD and Euro Area M3 Chart showing the correlation between the euro-area broad money supply (M3) and EUR/USD (inverted). Image: Morgan Stanley Research