Money Supply and Inflation

Money Supply and Inflation Aging is inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate, and deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity. If the money supply grows faster than real output, then it causes inflation. And if there is a structural bottom for commodities and inflation, value could outperform growth. Image: Fidelity Investments

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth

China – Required Reserve Ratio vs. M1 Money Supply Growth The People’s Bank of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio for most financial institutions, but M1 money supply growth is currently near the lowest. This is not good news for GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland

M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions

M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions Great chart showing the correlation between M1 money supply and the yield curve. The key factor for inverted yield curves is tight money. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland

What Does M1 Money Supply Growth Tell Us About the Next Recession?

What Does M1 Money Supply Growth Tell Us About the Next Recession? M1 is the money supply that includes types of money commonly used for payment, basically currency outside banks and checking account balances. This is not the perfect recession indicator, but in recent history, it turns negative at least one year before a recession.

Number of DM and EM Central Banks Easing Each Month

Number of DM and EM Central Banks Easing Each Month Currently, most of the world’s central banks are easing, to boost money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth. Image: J.P. Morgan

World’s Central Banks Are Cutting Rates

World’s Central Banks Are Cutting Rates World’s central banks are lowering interest rates, in order to boost money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth. Image: Charles Schwab

U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns

U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns This chart suggests that M2 money supply to nominal GDP ratio leads S&P 500 returns by one year. Is the S&P 500 vulnerable to a drop, followed by a recovery? Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond