U.S. 10-Year Real Rate Leads S&P 500 Future

U.S. 10-Year Real Rate Leads S&P 500 Future Chart suggesting that the U.S. 10-year real rate leads the S&P 500 future by 22 days. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500?

Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500? When the S&P 500 hits all-time high and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bulls is below 35%, then 88% of the time the S&P 500 is positive one year later (1986-2019). Picture source: SentimenTrader

S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending

S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending This chart shows that U.S. core capital spending is near a 20-year high. Are fears that U.S. companies may be curtailing spending plans overblown? Keep in mind that the absence of dividend cuts also suggests that U.S. companies are confident in their future earnings potential. Picture source: Leuthold Group

Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds

Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now. Picture source: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.

S&P 500 PE Level vs. Average 12-month Return

S&P 500 PE Level vs. Average 12-month Return The chart shows how market valuation affects future equity returns since 1930. You may also like “Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession?“ Picture source: Richardson GMP

10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns

10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…