Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions

Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions Historically, when the U.S. 2s10s yield curve has been inverted by more than -100bps, a U.S. recession is currently happening or will happen within 8 months. Is it different this time? Image: Deutsche Bank

Distribution of Forward Returns by 200MA Slope

Distribution of Forward Returns by 200MA Slope This great chart shows the distribution of forward returns when the slope of S&P 500’s 200-day moving average is lower, flat or higher. Image: Ritholtz Wealth Management

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Slope The U.S. 2s10s yield curve has inverted again, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations about future economic conditions. Image: The Daily Shot

Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve

Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. Image: The Daily Shot

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP This chart suggests that the 1y3m-3m slope leads U.S. GDP. The 1y3m-3m slope has turned down sharply and is informative for year-head growth. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve Deutsche Bank has calculated the U.S. recession probabilities over the next year, using the slope of various yield curves. PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to estimate the effects of yield curve movements. Image: Deutsche Bank