U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Slope

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Slope Should investors expect a more inverted 10Y-2Y yield curve? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Distribution of Forward Returns by 200MA Slope

Distribution of Forward Returns by 200MA Slope This great chart shows the distribution of forward returns when the slope of S&P 500’s 200-day moving average is lower, flat or higher. Image: Ritholtz Wealth Management

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP This chart suggests that the 1y3m-3m slope leads U.S. GDP. The 1y3m-3m slope has turned down sharply and is informative for year-head growth. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve Deutsche Bank has calculated the U.S. recession probabilities over the next year, using the slope of various yield curves. PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to estimate the effects of yield curve movements. Image: Deutsche Bank

Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator

Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign of peaking. So, it suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “U.S. Heavy…