Federal Reserve Money Supply M2 Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Federal Reserve money supply M2 leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
Delinquency Rate of Student Loans since 2003 The delinquency rate of student loans is higher than credit card delinquency, auto loans and mortgages. The main reason is that the interest rate on student loans can be very high. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 1.8% for 2019:Q3 as of October 16, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States suggests that the U.S. economy is still in expansion mode over the next 6 months. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 37.9%. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Treasury Holdings: Who Are the Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities? Currently, the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are Japan and China. Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. Picture source: Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed Today, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index at 21.8 suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should remain above 50. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
