Keyword: Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Broad Dollar Indexes The dollar’s current level in real terms is elevated, but lower than previous peaks. Image: Peterson Institute for International Economics

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet This chart shows the Federal Reserve total assets. According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Federal Reserve Money Supply M2 Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Federal Reserve money supply M2 leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 2.0% for 2019:Q4. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States suggests that the U.S. economy is still in expansion mode over the next 6 months. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Treasury Holdings: Who Are the Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities? Currently, the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are Japan and China. Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board Click the Image to Enlarge

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 29.1% in November. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Delinquency Rate of Student Loans since 2003 The delinquency rate of student loans is higher than credit card delinquency, auto loans and mortgages. The main reason is that the interest rate on student loans can be very high. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York