U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Net Margin Debt So far, U.S. margin debt as a share of market capitalization remains elevated, which reflects ongoing confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond to future challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Margin Debt and MoM Change The recent three-month, $90 billion decline in margin debt is not characteristic of what is typically observed at market tops, where margin debt tends to rise or peak amid speculative excess. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record While the global debt-to-GDP ratio has slightly declined, the absolute debt burden remains a major risk, requiring careful fiscal management and international cooperation to avoid financial instability. Image: International Monetary Fund
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold vs. U.S. M2 and U.S. Debt to GDP Historically, gold prices have tracked the expansion of the money supply and have responded to increases in U.S. government debt. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction A decline in margin debt has historically signaled impending market turbulence, as margin debt levels often reflect investor confidence and risk appetite. Image: Topdown Charts
Debt-to-GDP and 10-Year Government Bond Yield While it might seem intuitive that higher debt burdens would lead to higher yields due to increased risk, this relationship has not held true in practice. Yields are influenced by multiple economic factors, not just debt levels. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 vs. Margin Debt Margin debt boosts market gains as investors leverage their positions to increase buying power. A reliable warning sign for reducing portfolio risk occurs when margin balances drop below the 12-month moving average. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Stock Market – Margin Debt and Free Cash Balances The record surge in margin debt reflects heightened risk-taking among investors. If retail enthusiasm persists, this trend may continue, but elevated margin debt levels could amplify market volatility. Image: Real Investment Advice