Margin Debt and Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average Margin debt has surged for five straight months—the sharpest rise since the last market peak. The move has pushed margin balances far above their 48‑month moving average, flashing warning signs of overleverage and rising risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. Margin Debt Rising margin debt fuels rallies and reflects strong investor confidence, but once it slips below key trendlines like the 12‑month average, it flags fading risk appetite and growing market fragility. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is soaring to levels that make some investors uneasy, flirting with the “danger zone.” For now, momentum still points higher—but a reversal would be the real red flag. Image: Topdown Charts
Margin Debt as % of U.S. Nominal GDP NYSE margin debt exceeding $1.1 trillion, near record highs relative to nominal GDP, signals rapid investor re-leveraging and heightened volatility risk, though not necessarily implying an imminent market crash. Image: Deutsche Bank
NYSE Margin Debt Margin debt on the NYSE has jumped at one of the fastest clips on record over the past five months, fueling a “buy‑the‑dip” frenzy and surging risk appetite—a mix that’s stirring fresh worries about market froth. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and Margin Debt Now above $1 trillion, margin debt stands at just about 1/57th of the total U.S. equity market cap, up 35% from a year ago—still a far cry from the surges seen at past bubble highs. Market tone feels alert, not alarmed. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Stock Market – Margin Debt and Free Cash Balances The current record margin debt, exceeding $1 trillion, signals heightened investor risk-taking and confidence; however, if the market falters, this elevated leverage could amplify volatility and losses. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to restore financial stability. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Net Margin Debt So far, U.S. margin debt as a share of market capitalization remains elevated, which reflects ongoing confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond to future challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research