The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy US-China trade conflict, US corporate debt burden, and emerging-markets crisis are the main global risks according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Image: World Economic Forum
Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…
Is Tesla Stock a Good Investment? Ouch, Tesla stock is down from $377 to $196 in just 23 weeks. Tesla is not a tech company, but a car company. It isn’t making as much money as expected. The future of Tesla is far from certain, with billions in debt coming due soon. Image: Hedgeye Risk…
U.S. Corporate Stock Buybacks Are Booming Since 2010! Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates. What would happen if companies reinvested instead of buying their own shares? Unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary debt. See how corporate debt-to-GDP has increased since the Great Recession.
Why Are Dividends and Buybacks Hitting Record Highs? Corporate stock buybacks and dividends are booming, thanks to the tax cuts and low interest rates.Unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary debt and a rise of corporate debt-to-GDP since the Great Recession.
Is the Fed Funds Rate Lower Today than in Previous Business Cycles? Yes! and unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary debt, lower productivity and zombie firms in this late-cycle expansion. Image: Blackrock
Why U.S. Productivity Is Lower Than Previous Business Cycles? The real yield is the most important measure of financial tightness. But as the real yield is near zero, artificially low interest rates are then associated with unnecessary debt, zombie firms and lower productivity than previous business cycles. Zombie firms cannot invest, innovate and increase productivity. …
Greek’s 5-Year Bond Yields Have Fallen Below US 5-Year Government Bond Yield Which one would you choose? Greek bonds or US counterparts? This is a great example of financial market madness. Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” That’s true! Greece has spent around half its time in default on its…
Dalio Says U.S. Two Years From Downturn as Tax Cut Benefit Fades Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio speaks with Erik Schatzker about the next downturn and the impact of tax cuts. He also discusses debt cycles and the fact that central banks should control the level of debt and take responsibility for bubbles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1xcQKIl850
When the next recession comes there is going to be a lot of turmoil says Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach is the CEO of Doubleline Capital. He speaks about the turmoil, the debts and the risk factor during the next recession. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsSo1rTqMdc