Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months?

Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.”

The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months.

Image: Morgan Stanley Research

US cycle indicator now flagging 'downturn'