Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…

Gold vs. Other Asset Total Returns

Gold vs. Other Asset Total Returns A performance rotation from stocks to gold is emerging. This may signal the beginning of a broader shift, as Trump’s efforts to weaken the dollar and lower rates coincide with a deteriorating outlook for equities. Image: Topdown Charts

Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes

Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors have sharply shifted toward risk aversion due to escalating tariff policies and eroding market visibility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets

U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets The elevated equity exposure of U.S. households, while not an absolute sign of impending market downturns, highlights the necessity for cautious investment decisions and strategic portfolio management. Image: J.P. Morgan

Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows

Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows The ongoing preference for safe assets over risky ones indicates investor wariness about market conditions and a focus on capital preservation in uncertain times. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets

Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets Money market funds continue to attract strong investor interest, as they offer safe and profitable short-term opportunities in the current high-interest-rate environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Household Asset Allocation

Household Asset Allocation The wealth gap between the rich and the middle/lower classes is significantly influenced by their asset ownership patterns. The wealthy predominantly own equities, while the middle and lower classes tend to invest heavily in real estate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Money Market Fund Assets

U.S. Money Market Fund Assets U.S. money market fund assets hit a new all-time high of $8.2 tn, reflecting a continued trend of investors seeking safety and yield. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research