Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…
Total Returns for a Selection of Major Global Financial Assets since the U.S. Election Since Inauguration Day, U.S. stocks have significantly underperformed major global financial assets, largely due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a notable shift in investor sentiment toward international markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold vs. Other Asset Total Returns A performance rotation from stocks to gold is emerging. This may signal the beginning of a broader shift, as Trump’s efforts to weaken the dollar and lower rates coincide with a deteriorating outlook for equities. Image: Topdown Charts
Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors have sharply shifted toward risk aversion due to escalating tariff policies and eroding market visibility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets The elevated equity exposure of U.S. households, while not an absolute sign of impending market downturns, highlights the necessity for cautious investment decisions and strategic portfolio management. Image: J.P. Morgan
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors With investor allocation to equities at an all-time high, the market faces increased vulnerability to volatility and substantial losses, especially in the event of a downturn. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows The ongoing preference for safe assets over risky ones indicates investor wariness about market conditions and a focus on capital preservation in uncertain times. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets Money market funds continue to attract strong investor interest, as they offer safe and profitable short-term opportunities in the current high-interest-rate environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers continue to maintain significant net long positions in U.S. equity futures, despite showing some reduced bullishness. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Household Asset Allocation The wealth gap between the rich and the middle/lower classes is significantly influenced by their asset ownership patterns. The wealthy predominantly own equities, while the middle and lower classes tend to invest heavily in real estate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets U.S. money market fund assets hit a new all-time high of $8.2 tn, reflecting a continued trend of investors seeking safety and yield. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research