Probability of a U.S. Recession as Currently Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 implies a 57% chance of recession, while 5-year U.S. Treasuries imply a 86% chance of recession. Image: J.P. Morgan
Momentum Signal Across Asset Classes Momentum signals across all asset classes have flipped to extreme risk-off. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risky Assets and Safe Haven Assets Risky and safe haven assets usually don’t move in the same direction. Image: Richardson GMP
U.S. Business Cycle – Cross-Asset Cycle Indicator Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is still in “downturn.” Image: Morgan Stanley Research
History of Asset Bubbles Past 40-Years This chart puts into perspective the history of asset bubbles over the past 40 years. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Economy vs. Asset Prices Persistent low interest rates could explain the wide divergence between real economy prices and asset prices, over the past decade. Image: Charles Schwab
Bitcoin, Gold and Performances by Asset Classes Bitcoin is the best performing asset class YTD, even better than gold known as the “safe haven” asset. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Deflation Assets vs. Inflation Assets The leadership is still deflationary, and the laggards are inflationary. Deflation Assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield.Inflation Assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Asset Growth in Global ETF Fixed-Income The incredible rise of fixed-income exchange-traded funds puts pressure on banks. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Asset Correlations and Fed Balance Sheet Trends The correlations between U.S. asset returns and Fed balance sheet growth are generally inconsistent and dimishing over time. Image: J.P. Morgan