Average Return Following a Peak in ISM Manufacturing After a peak in ISM manufacturing, the forward return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative on average over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Value vs. Growth (Monthly Average Returns) Historically, returns for Value vs. Growth tend to be positive in December. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns Historically, October 28 has been the best day of the year for the S&P 500. Image: LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Average Returns Since 1926 Historically, in the year following a double-digit gain, there have only been three years where the U.S. stock market has experienced a double-digit decline. Image: Ben Carlson
S&P 500 Average Return in December Historically, the S&P 500 has done well in the second half of December. Image: LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Index Average Returns After Record Highs Since 1950, the S&P 500 has continued to reach record highs, but rarely in a straight line. Image: LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Average Return for Each Day This spreadsheet shows the S&P 500 average return for each day from 1950 to 2018. “History never repeats itself but it rhymes” –Mark Twain. Historically, October 28 has been the best day of the year for the S&P 500. You may also like “S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern.” Image: Ryan…
Valuation – CAPE Ratio and Subsequent 10-Year Average Annualized Returns The current CAPE ratio at 37.04 suggests anemic returns over the next 10 years for U.S. equities. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Historically, the next 6 months are weak for the S&P 500. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Average Forward S&P 500 Return Conditional on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 and 6 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research