Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Payrolls Change in U.S. Economic Cycle Nonfarm payrolls have averaged 184k the past 12 months, more than the cycle average of 170k. This does not happen in front of recessions. Image: LPL Financial LLC
U.S. Dollar Cycles U.S. dollar cycles are persistent and are counted in years. In the absence of a recession in the U.S. in 2020, the strength of the U.S. dollar should continue for some time. Image: Danske Bank
ISM Manufacturing Index and Credit Returns Across Economic Cycles Since 2004 If investors get the ISM Manufacturing right, they do well. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Market Cycle Back Tested over the Years Chart suggesting that the end of a bull market often occurs when the percentage signals that are bullish fall to 30% or below. Image: Richardson GMP
U.S. Market Cycle Indicators Chart suggesting that the current business cycle’s end is not imminent in the U.S.. The risk of a bear market is low when the number of market cycle indicators is greater than 10. Image: Richardson GMP
Long-Term U.S. Dollar Cycles This chart shows bear and bull cycles in the U.S. dollar. Will the U.S. dollar enter a bear market? Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 and Mini-Cycles Chart suggesting that market participants have started to take into account the start of a fourth mini-cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Valuation and Global Asset Price Cycle Interesting chart showing the current average overvaluation estimates across equities, bonds and house prices in major advanced economies. Image: Oxford Economics
Super-Cycles – Commodities, Stocks, and Bonds The importance of asset allocation and diversification: commodities, stocks, and bonds do not necessarily moved together over the long term. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
U.S. Business Cycle – Cumulative Real GDP Growth of U.S. Postwar Expansions and Forecast The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. Chart showing the UBS forecast through year-end 2020. Image: UBS