Where Are We In The Cycle?

Where Are We In The Cycle? Morgan Stanley expects a Goldilocks recovery in 2021, along with benign inflation and accomodative policies. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle

EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle Historically, S&P 500 volatility has increased ahead of U.S. elections, but at the end of the day, “profits matter more than politics.” Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy

FMS Investors – Early-Cycle vs. Recession

FMS Investors – Early-Cycle vs. Recession FMS investors are becoming more optimistic, starting to think early-cycle rather than recession. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

Inflation in this Cycle (DM GDP Deflator)

Inflation in this Cycle (DM GDP Deflator) Morgan Stanley expects the return of inflation after the Great COVID-19 Recession (GCR). Image: Morgan Stanley Research

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 Historically, election year shines in June-August, as it is the strongest 3-month period of presidential cycle year 4 (up 74% of the time with an average return of 6.93%). Image: BofA Global Research