S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle U.S. stocks often experience weakness in Q1 of a post-election year, reflecting uncertainty tied to new policies and economic adjustments. However, the second quarter typically shows stronger performance, offering hope for recovery. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 While the market may face some choppiness in the near term, the Carson Cycle Composite’s prediction of a strong 2025 for U.S. stocks gives bulls reason for confidence. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Cycle Composite Based on the S&P 500 Cycle Composite forecast, an uptrend is expected to start around this time and continue through the first week of March 2025. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls have reason to be cheerful as post-election years tend to bring solid market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 18% during these years, with positive results in nine out of ten cases. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle The U.S. stock market typically outperforms in the first two years of a President’s second term compared to a new President’s term, suggesting a potentially strong year for stocks and giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cut Cycles Since 1966, the current Fed easing cycle has resulted in the second-worst performance of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The only period with worse performance was in 1981, during Chairman Paul Volcker’s aggressive measures to combat inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle The S&P 500’s four-year cycle suggests a positive first half of 2025 followed by a more challenging second half, as post-election years often see more restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research
Performance of Gold and Fed Cutting Cycles Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are often perceived as favorable for gold prices, particularly during periods of economic downturn. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle While election results can impact markets in the short term, the underlying profitability of companies is a stronger driver of stock prices over time. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research