Search Results for: cycle

Late Cycle – U.S. Regimes The U.S. regime indicator is in the downturn phase. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets – 3rd Year of U.S. Election Cycle Only Both bulls and bears may be frustrated this year. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 – Monthly Seasonality for Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle Historically, March tends to be a positive month for the S&P 500 in the third year of the U.S. presidential cycle. Image: BofA Global Research

Average S&P 500 Performance in Fed Tightening Cycles S&P 500 weakness tends to materialise 9-10 months after the first Fed rate hike and tends to last a year. Image: Deutsche Bank

Average Monthly S&P 500 Return During Different ISM Cycle Phases Conditional on Bond Yield Changes Historically, rising bond yields are a headwind for U.S. equity returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Business Cycle – Cross-Asset Cycle Indicator The Morgan Stanley’s U.S. cycle indicator has moved into the downturn phase. Should investors favor fixed income over equities? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle This year being a pre-election year could see increased U.S. government spending, which can serve to boost U.S. stock prices. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles The secular bull market remains intact so far. Image: Real Investment Advice