S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in history after the early dot-com rally. Image: Bloomberg
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness. Image: Ned Davis Research
Investor Psychology Cycle When panic hits, markets overshoot to the downside, creating opportunities for contrarians to buy into peak fear. The mirror image? Euphoria, which usually sets up the exit. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Performance Around Issuance Upcycles Past issuance waves tell a familiar story: they usually line up with strong U.S. equity performance, underpinned by steady buying interest. That pattern is tough to ignore in a rising market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years have a reputation for shaky markets. History tells a different story in second presidential terms, with U.S. stocks averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Those midterm jitters tend to fade quicker than investors expect. Image: Carson Investment Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling 17.5% on average. The flip side is striking: one year after the low, stocks have been consistently higher,…
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years tend to shake up U.S. markets, as policy risks and political noise rise before voters hit the polls. Uncertainty is the one asset every portfolio gets stuck with, and election season always adds more to the mix. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close deeply in the red, could this time be the exception? Image: Carson Investment Research