Seasonality – NASDAQ Cycle Composite September is often a weaker month for the NASDAQ, but the Fed’s non-recessionary rate cuts are helping to counter that trend, fueling momentum and boosting investor confidence. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Index Around First Cut Following Easing Cycle Pauses of Six Months or More Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after holding steady for at least six months, U.S. stocks often post strong gains over the following year—especially when the cuts reflect economic normalization rather than recession. Image: Ned Davis Research
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cut Cycles Fed rate cuts usually push down short-term interest rates, but long-term U.S. Treasury yields do not always move in parallel. Market expectations around inflation, future Fed decisions, and debt supply dynamics can drive them higher instead. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle The behavior of the S&P 500—peaking in early August with a softer year-end rally—is a typical post-election year trend observed historically in U.S. presidential election cycles. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Cycle Composite The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a less bullish period of the year, with 2025 so far following typical seasonal patterns: early strength, mid-year volatility, and a potential year-end rally. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500’s behavior in 2025 continues to align with the presidential election 4-year seasonal cycle, which provides a useful framework. Image: Nautilus Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Post-election years typically bring strong market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of over 18%, with positive returns in 90% of cases. The real concern, however, lies in the year that follows. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle In post-election years, Q1 tends to be weak. Q2 often shows stronger performance, while Q3 usually experiences some weakness. As the saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Image: Carson Investment Research
Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 While the market may face some choppiness in the near term, the Carson Cycle Composite’s prediction of a strong 2025 for U.S. stocks gives bulls reason for confidence. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle The U.S. stock market typically outperforms in the first two years of a President’s second term compared to a new President’s term, suggesting a potentially strong year for stocks and giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research