Search Results for: cycle

U.S. Economic Cycles Since 1854 This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. economic cycle. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

U.S. Business Cycle Indicator Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is still in “downturn.” The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

Earnings Growth and the Fed Cycle Analysts remain optimistic on 2020. This chart shows the expected earnings growth over the next 12 months. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

Cumulative Mutual Fund + ETF Flows by Bull Market Cycle: Bonds vs. Equities Flows Is this the most hated bull market in history? Well, investors continue buying bonds. Picture source: ICI Mutual & ETF Flow

ISM Manufacturing Index – Mini-Cycles and Recessions During the economic cycle, the last mini-cycle usually leads to a recession. Picture source: Charles Schwab

Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

ISM Manufacturing Index Surrounding FED Easing Cycles The chart shows that the trend of the ISM Manufacturing Index is quite similar to past cycles before first Fed rate cut. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

Output Gap and Stages of the U.S. Business Cycle The shift towards monetary easing by the Fed could extend the U.S. economic expansion. Picture source: BlackRock

EPS Growth This Cycle This chart shows the exceptional earnings growth in the technology sector over this business cycle. Picture source: KKR Global Macro