S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality serves as a valuable tool for assessing probabilities in the stock market. According to historical data, U.S. stocks often demonstrate notable strength during the summer months of election years. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Payrolls Change in U.S. Economic Cycle According to BofA’s forecast, non-farm payrolls are expected to moderate to 200K in March, reflecting a potential slowdown in job growth compared to previous months. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Considering the substantial cyclical correction in 2022, the current presidential cycle suggests that there is potential for the S&P 500 to perform well in 2024. Image: BofA Global Research
Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 The Carson cycle composite provides valuable insights for investors and traders, suggesting that the S&P 500 index historically tends to exhibit a period of weakness around now, which often extends into March. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Relative Return vs. S&P 500 During 12 Months Following Start of Fed Cutting Cycle During periods when the Fed cuts interest rates, the healthcare and staples sectors have shown relatively stronger performance compared to the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle Based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles, the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains a topic of discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank