U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) U.S. annual core CPI at 1.7% in August. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next…

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio In periods of low inflation, the P/E ratio is higher. Conversely, high inflation tends to depress the P/E ratio. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation)

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation) The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. Because both inflation and unemployment are very low, the U.S. misery index (unemployment rate + core inflation) is approaching all-time low. That’s good news for Americans, because it brings stability to the life of the…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles?

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…