U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation)

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation) The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. Because both inflation and unemployment are very low, the U.S. misery index (unemployment rate + core inflation) is approaching all-time low. That’s good news for Americans, because it brings stability to the life of the…

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI dips in October to 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the…

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles?

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target

U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rises to 1.6% in June. Inflation trending back up toward the Fed’s 2% target is good news. You may also like “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.”