Core Inflation Forecasts vs. History

Core Inflation Forecasts vs. History The forecast suggests that U.S. core inflation will be consistently above the recent history. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) U.S. annual core CPI at 1.3% in February. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index tends to lead U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio

Core Inflation and Average Trailing S&P 500 P/E Ratio In periods of low inflation, the P/E ratio is higher. Conversely, high inflation tends to depress the P/E ratio. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation)

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation) The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. Because both inflation and unemployment are very low, the U.S. misery index (unemployment rate + core inflation) is approaching all-time low. That’s good news for Americans, because it brings stability to the life of the…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research