Debt-to-GDP and 10-Year Government Bond Yield While it might seem intuitive that higher debt burdens would lead to higher yields due to increased risk, this relationship has not held true in practice. Yields are influenced by multiple economic factors, not just debt levels. Image: BCA Research
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Long Term Government Bonds (+15y) Rolling 10-Year Annualized Returns Long-dated U.S. Treasury 10-year returns are currently nearing 62-year lows, raising questions about the potential for better returns in the future. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Returns The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently experiencing a challenging period in terms of its annual return, as it is on track for the 3rd worst annual return since 1919. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Coporate vs. Government Bond Returns Since March 2020, U.S. corporate bonds have significantly outperformed government bonds. Will this trend continue in the coming months? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Long-Term Government Bond Returns The 10-year annualized return from U.S. Treasuries is at a 65-year low of just 0.6%, prompting investors to reassess portfolio allocation and risk management strategies. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Annual Returns Never before has the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond experienced three consecutive years of annual declines. Is this time different? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Historically, the re-steepening of the 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury yield curve from the trough has preceded recessions. Image: The Daily Shot
Ownership of U.S. Government Bond Market Foreign investors remain the larger owners of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, continues to rise. Image: The Daily Shot