ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Returns The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently experiencing a challenging period in terms of its annual return, as it is on track for the 3rd worst annual return since 1919. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Coporate vs. Government Bond Returns Since March 2020, U.S. corporate bonds have significantly outperformed government bonds. Will this trend continue in the coming months? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Long-Term Government Bond Returns The 10-year annualized return from U.S. Treasuries is at a 65-year low of just 0.6%, prompting investors to reassess portfolio allocation and risk management strategies. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Annual Returns Never before has the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond experienced three consecutive years of annual declines. Is this time different? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Historically, the re-steepening of the 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury yield curve from the trough has preceded recessions. Image: The Daily Shot
Ownership of U.S. Government Bond Market Foreign investors remain the larger owners of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, continues to rise. Image: The Daily Shot
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, hit a 14-year high. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 2-Year Government Bond Yield The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising as U.S. inflation may be more persistent than expected, which remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. Image: The Daily Shot