Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady growth, not an economic boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives implies roughly 2.4% US real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. The hit to output looks modest given how sharp the oil price swing is. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. GDP vs. S&P 500 EPS With GDP growth and S&P 500 earnings moving in lockstep, vigilance is warranted. Valuations are lofty, forecasts are rosy, and history shows that when the economy cools, earnings don’t stay hot for long. Image: Real Investment Advice
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Market Capitalization vs. U.S. GDP The wealth creation in the U.S. stock market has significantly outpaced the broader economy, leading to increased sensitivity of consumer spending to equity moves. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. GDP Consensus Forecast The U.S. exceptionalism narrative appears fragile. With expectations already high, there’s little room for positive surprises, and weaker economic data could hurt the dollar due to investors’ skewed positioning. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy, forecasting a more favorable GDP growth outlook for 2025 than current consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contributions to U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.2% Q4/Q4 expansion in U.S. GDP for 2024, surpassing consensus estimates and highlighting the economy’s resilience. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. GDP Growth BofA forecasts a robust U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in Q2 2024, reflecting the bank’s confidence in the resilience of the American economy. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs expresses confidence in the robustness of the U.S. economy, foreseeing a positive outlook for the growth of U.S. GDP. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research