U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and U.S. GDP (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index is at the lowest level since 2009 and tends to lead U.S. GDP by 5 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. GDP – Largest Annual Economic Contractions in the U.S. Since 1900 Deutsche Bank predicts U.S. GDP to shrink -4.2% in 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. GDP Forecast for 2020 J.P. Morgan suggests that U.S. GDP in Q2 will be the worst on record. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. GDP Growth Scenario Chart suggesting that U.S. GDP could improve significantly in the fourth quarter of 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Production Index Leads U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Production Index leads U.S. GDP by 5 months. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. GDP Growth and Business Cycles Despite the current U.S. economic expansion is the longest ever, GDP growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC
Rotation vs. U.S. GDP Growth Forecasts Chart suggesting that the rotation out of bonds into equities, out of growth into cyclicals, out of large caps into small caps, and out of gold into copper, is expected to continue in 2020. Image: Fidelity Investments
Real U.S. GDP Growth Contribution and Forecast Chart showing real U.S. GDP expected at 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Image: Oxford Economics