Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth

Markets are betting on steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2.5% U.S. real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ 2.4% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast.

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth