U.S. Monetary Policy, Term Premium and Yield Curve

U.S. Monetary Policy, Term Premium and Yield Curve This chart suggests when U.S. monetary policy is too tight or too loose. An inverted yield curve is a sign that monetary policy is too tight. Image: Fidelity Investments

Demographics – Labor Force Growth and Term Premium

Demographics – Labor Force Growth and Term Premium Chart suggesting that growth in the labor force could explain the term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Fidelity Investments

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Longview Economics, Macrobond

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond remains in negative territory. Investors do not seem to fear rising rates over the long-term. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds.

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Long-Term Average

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Long-Term Average The S&P 500 equity risk premium is slightly higher than the long-term average of 280 bps, but well below the 436 bps average since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX

U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX The U.S. equity risk premium remains above its long-term average, but the risk-adjusted return of equity has dropped below its long-term avearge this year. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Next Twelve Month Equity Risk Premium

S&P 500 Next Twelve Month Equity Risk Premium Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 NTM equity risk premium remains well above its long-term average. Image: Morgan Stanley Research