MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium

MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. Picture source: Longview Economics, Macrobond

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond

Term Premium on a 10-Year Zero Coupon Bond Term premium on a 10-year zero coupon bond remains in negative territory. Investors do not seem to fear rising rates over the long-term. Term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds.

Stock Market Equity Risk Premium

https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-equity-risk-premium.mp4 This fabulous model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note The US stock market equity risk premium is the US stock market excess return for the next 10 years over the 10-year treasury Note. This is the premium that…

Stock Market Short-Term Forecast

https://www.isabelnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/stock-market-short-term-forecast.mp4 This great tool shows the US stock market forecast for the next 12 months and the probability This advanced mathematical model extracts insights from multiple financial data and produces a stock market short-term forecast for the next 12 months with a very high degree of confidence. This great prediction model is updated daily. It…

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Stock Market Forecasting Models

SELECT A STOCK MARKET FORECASTING MODEL STOCK MARKET VALUATION STOCK MARKET SHORT-TERM FORECAST STOCK MARKET EQUITY RISK PREMIUM STOCK MARKET LONG-TERM FORECAST STOCK MARKET FORECASTING MODELS VS. US STOCK MARKET 99% CORRELATION, R² = 0.97 SINCE 1970 RECESSION INDICATORS LEADING INDICATORS

Why Lower Bond Yields Influence the S&P 500?

Why Lower Bond Yields Influence the S&P 500? Because lower interest rates push stock market multiples higher.  If interest rates are lower, then the value of future cash flows increases, because future cash flows are discounted back at a lower interest rate. So, lower U.S. 10-year yields influence the stock market equity risk premium. On the other…