Performance – S&P 500 Banks vs. 10Y-3M U.S. Treasury Yield Curve U.S. banks have lagged the broad market over the last 12 months, despite the yield curve steepening. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
FMS Investors and 10Y-3M Yield Curve FMS investors are expecting a steeper yield curve. At 73%, this is an all-time high. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
The 10Y-3M Yield Curve The 10-year less 3-month yield curve flattens, as the coronavirus spreads from China. Image: Bianco Research
U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve While the divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record, the steepening yield curve suggests an earnings rebound. Image: BofA Global Research
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
10Y-3M Yield Curve Spread Leads U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests that the 10Y-3M yield spread leads U.S. real GDP growth by one year. So, what about real GDP growth in 2020?
10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread After First Rate Cut and Recessions After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: Charles Schwab
10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel
10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread This interesting chart shows the Google trends interest for the “yield curve” compared to the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread. If history helps us predict the future, the next market peak could be in 2021 or later, maybe. Image: Ken Fisher