U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Fed Funds Target Rate Historically, the Fed doesn’t pivot policy until a recession arrives and the 10Y-3M US Treasury yield curve inverts. Is it really different this time? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Dollar Index vs. 10Y-3M Real U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (Leading Indicator) The peak in the U.S. dollar may be near as the 10Y-3M real yield curve has begun to flatten. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Recessions and 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inverted The odds of a U.S. recession are rising, but remain well below warning levels. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
The 10Y-3M Yield Curve Historically, an inverted yield curve has been an excellent predicator of economic recessions in the United States. Image: Bianco Research
Performance – S&P 500 Banks vs. 10Y-3M U.S. Treasury Yield Curve U.S. banks have lagged the broad market over the last 12 months, despite the yield curve steepening. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
FMS Investors and 10Y-3M Yield Curve FMS investors are expecting a steeper yield curve. At 73%, this is an all-time high. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve While the divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record, the steepening yield curve suggests an earnings rebound. Image: BofA Global Research
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
10Y-3M Yield Curve Spread Leads U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests that the 10Y-3M yield spread leads U.S. real GDP growth by one year. So, what about real GDP growth in 2020?
10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread After First Rate Cut and Recessions After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: Charles Schwab