NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey is closely correlated with the performance of U.S. small-cap stocks, making the NFIB index a valuable economic indicator for investors in this market segment. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Consumer Confidence Composite vs. Trailing S&P 500 Valuations The composite consumer confidence index is highly correlated with trailing one-year S&P 500 valuations, which can signal times of market exuberance or caution. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. CEO Confidence Index The sharp decline in U.S. CEO optimism in 2025 is largely attributed to new tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, inflation, and unpredictable government actions, reversing the post-election optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Consumer Confidence Trump’s approval exceeds Biden’s late-term lows, but deteriorating consumer confidence’s predictive power signals substantial downside risk as economic anxieties translate into political consequences. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Conference Board CEO Confidence CEO optimism is closely tied to equity market performance, with market declines often precipitating a drop in executive confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank
CEO Confidence vs. S&P 500 Annual % Change Strong CEO confidence typically bodes well for U.S. stocks, as there’s a correlation between executive optimism and annual market performance. Image: Real Investment Advice
NFIB Small Business Confidence Index In December 2024, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index soared to 105.1, a six-year high, as small business owners’ confidence surged following the recent election and expectations of pro-business policies. Image: Real Investment Advice
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While the U.S. stock market has experienced a remarkable rally, consumer confidence has waned since 2019, underscoring a disconnect between financial market performance and broader economic sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy The current landscape suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook among CEOs, which could lead to increased economic activity and investment as businesses prepare for potential growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Buybacks vs. CEO Confidence (Leading Indicator) S&P 500 buybacks are likely to rebound, as CEO confidence typically leads buybacks by 6 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research