Global Economic Strength Indices (Imports/Exports, Confidence, Inflation) Global trade is recovering after a period of weakness. That’s good news for inflation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Conference Board Confidence Index of CEO vs. U.S. Real Business Investment The trade war has no winners and could curtail U.S. business investment further. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
S&P 500 vs. U.S. CEO Confidence Survey Economic Expectations The S&P 500 is in “Fear of Missing Out” mode, while CEO confidence has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Global Consumers (Housing and Retail) vs. Confidence (Soft Data) Chart showing the large divergence between global hard data and confidence (soft data). Confidence still refuses to rebound. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment A tight U.S. labor market and low interest rates should continue to support U.S. consumer confidence and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence Leads U.S. Unemployment Chart suggesting that U.S. consumer confidence leads U.S. unemployment by three months. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
ISM Manufacturing Index and CEO Confidence Lead S&P 500 Buybacks Chart suggesting that ISM Manufacturing Index and CEO Confidence lead S&P 500 buybacks. Share buybacks are projected to decline further. Source: BCA Research
MSCI World Index vs. OECD Unemployment Rate and U.S. Consumer Confidence Chart suggesting that OECD unemployment troughs and very confident U.S. consumers do not generally bode well for global equities. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence Relative to U.S. Business Confidence This chart shows one of the highest divergence between consumer confidence and business confidence, more than two standard deviations. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch