U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Picture source: Crescat Capital LLC
CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Picture source: Credit Suisse
Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…
U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Picture…
When Do Recessions Occur in the US? Since 1948, recessions occur in the US after the unemployment rate is lower than the natural rate of unemployment (long-term), with a very high degree of confidence.
