U.S. Consumer Confidence Relative to U.S. Business Confidence This chart shows one of the highest divergence between consumer confidence and business confidence, more than two standard deviations. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
Conference Board CEO Business Confidence – Expectations for Economy 6 Months Ahead CEOs in the U.S. remain pessimistic about economic conditions. Outside of U.S. recession, CEO confidence has never been so low. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Picture source: Lohman Econometrics
Conference Board CEO Confidence Chart showing that CEOs in the U.S. remain pessimistic about current economic conditions. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence Consumer confidence has remained relatively strong, but may weaken later this year due to the decline in business confidence. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Picture source: Crescat Capital LLC
CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
