MSCI World Index vs. OECD Unemployment Rate and U.S. Consumer Confidence Chart suggesting that OECD unemployment troughs and very confident U.S. consumers do not generally bode well for global equities. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
San Francisco Fed Leading Unemployment Rate Does the San Francisco Fed Leading Unemployment Rate signal a turning point in the U.S. labor market? Picture source: Merk Investments
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 9 months. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Deutsche Bank
U.S. and Eurozone Unemployment Rates This chart shows the gap between the unemployment rates of the two economies, while unemployment falls to historic lows. Picture source: Financial Times
Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into the late phase of its business cycle. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Picture source: Oxford Economics
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Picture source: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans The U.S. unemployment rate of Black or African Americans stands at 6.3%, while the civilian unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, near its lowest level in almost 50 years. You may also like “Homeownership Disparity Deepens.”
U.S. Long-term Unemployment Rate Interesting chart showing that the U.S. long-term unemployment rate is back to its long-run average. Picture source: Ben Casselman
