Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could the U.S. consumer—remarkably resilient thus far—face potential cracks from escalating trade tensions, immigration policy shifts, and fiscal adjustments? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate Goldman Sachs forecasts a series of interest rate cuts through mid-2025 while maintaining a steady unemployment rate due to ongoing job growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate While a low U.S. unemployment rate is generally a positive indicator for the economy, very low unemployment rates can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast According to Deutsche Bank, a mild recession in the United States may result in a modestly higher unemployment rate than what is anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. 10-Year UST Yield and 3-Month UST Yield A bull steepener occurs when the U.S. unemployment rate increases. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Recession – U.S. Personal Saving Rate vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising personal saving rates tend to be associated with economic downturns or recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy