Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate While the Sahm Rule has historically been a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions, the current labor market dynamics differ from past recessions and may challenge its applicability in the present context. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. labor market is exhibiting signs of slowing down, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in July 2024, attributed to a significant slowdown in hiring. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Unemployment Rate Even though the labor market is solid and the economy is growing, President Biden’s approval rating remains low, largely due to public unease over high inflation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate Shifts in NFIB small business hiring plans commonly serve as an early warning sign for upcoming variations in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate While a low U.S. unemployment rate is generally a positive indicator for the economy, very low unemployment rates can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast According to Deutsche Bank, a mild recession in the United States may result in a modestly higher unemployment rate than what is anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. 10-Year UST Yield and 3-Month UST Yield A bull steepener occurs when the U.S. unemployment rate increases. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Recession – U.S. Personal Saving Rate vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising personal saving rates tend to be associated with economic downturns or recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy