U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Picture source: Oxford Economics
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Picture source: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans The U.S. unemployment rate of Black or African Americans stands at 6.3%, while the civilian unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, near its lowest level in almost 50 years. You may also like “Homeownership Disparity Deepens.”
U.S. Long-term Unemployment Rate Interesting chart showing that the U.S. long-term unemployment rate is back to its long-run average. Picture source: Ben Casselman
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth U.S. unemployment rate at 3.7% and U.S. wage growth at 3.2% in July. U.S. employment growth slows, suggesting the U.S. economy is cooling. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland
The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
The U.S. Unemployment Rate since 1890 Highest level in 1934: 21.30% Lowest level in 1944: 1.20% Today: 3.60% Picture source: Bianco Research
How Does Education Affect the Unemployment Rate? The chart below shows the unemployment rate by education and the importance of education for the unemployed. Picture source: Ben Casselman
Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…
Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!
