U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows The peak in unemployment can be used as a signal for the end of a recessionary bear market in U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
First Major Fed Rate Cut – U.S. CPI vs. Unemployment Rate Can the Fed cut interest rates in response to the bank crisis? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate Before, During and at the End of Recessions The U.S. unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It is not a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A steepening U.S. yield curve has preceded recessions. Will the U.S. unemployment rate start to rise by the end of 2023? Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Forward EPS vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Weakness in S&P 500 earnings is a potential indicator of a higher U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Performance – U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. UST 10-Year vs. S&P 500 Price Relative Bonds tend to outperform stocks in a recessionary labor market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Labor Market – U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. Jobs “Hard to Get” Minus “Plentiful” How high will the U.S. unemployment rate rise? Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Unemployment Rate Consensus Forecasts Is the U.S. labor market too hot for the Federal Reserve’s liking? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. Headline CPI vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Historically, U.S. inflation peaks before the unemployment rate bottoms. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
China Unemployment Rate The Chinese unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in March, as lockdowns weigh on economic activity. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Consumer Sentiment and U.S. Unemployment Rate Consumer sentiment is a good leading indicator of the trend in the unemployment rate. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management