S&P 500 Gap Risk

S&P 500 Gap Risk The S&P 500 Index is subject to significant gap risks under the Presidency of Donald Trump. Picture source: Hayek and Keynes

CS Global Risk Appetite Index

CS Global Risk Appetite Index The Credit Suisse Global Risk Appetite Index falls, but is not at panic level. Picture source: Credit Suisse

Equity Risk Premium

Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium (earnings yield less bond yield) stands at 4.48% (the 90th percentile since 1985). It suggests that equities are cheap relative to bonds. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge?

Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge? In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents preferred 10-year Treasuries as the most effective risk-off hedge. Only 6% of respondents chose gold and the yen. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium

S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium This chart shows that the equity risk premium (earnings yield less 10-year Treasury yield) has reached 4.5%, as it was at the December low. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Risk Parity Funds

Risk Parity Funds Currently, risk parity equity allocations are near the top of the historical range. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research