S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium – Consensus Bottoms Up Earnings Yield – 10-Year Treasury Yield Should investors switch from U.S. stocks to U.S. Treasury bonds? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Risk Appetite Index The GS risk appetite index remains slightly positive. Image: The Daily Shot
FMS Investors – Net % Taking Higher than Normal Risk Levels FMS investors are taking lower than normal risk levels. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Equity Risk Premium – Change in ERP vs. 24-Month Lows Will the equity risk premium rise in 2023 as a U.S. recession is likely? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
FMS Investors – Biggest “Tail Risk” FMS investors see high inflation as the biggest “tail risk.” Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The risk appetite indicator is slightly positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
12-Month Forward S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium should rise as a recession is likely in the United States. Image: BCA Research
FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Index vs. S&P 500 Will the S&P 500 Index fall further? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Risky vs. safe assets fund flows remain negative. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession Risk Over Next Year Goldman Sachs’s recession risk in the United States stands at 30% over the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research