Markets – Equity Risk Premium and Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The similarities between today and the tech bubble make BofA bearish on 2022. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Liquidity and Solvency Risk Indices Liquidity and solvency risk indices remain low, which is good news for stocks. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
FMS Investors – Biggest “Tail Risk” FMS investors see hawkish central bank rate hikes as the biggest “tail risk.” Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Risky vs. safe assets fund flows remain negative. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The risk appetite indicator has turned sharply negative, as investors expect growth to slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Index The GS risk appetite index has turned negative, as investors expect growth to slowdown. Image: The Daily Shot
Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. ISM Manufacturing The risk appetite indicator is below zero, as investors expect growth to slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium – Equities vs. Bonds The S&P 500 equity risk premium is expected to decline through 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sensitivity of S&P 500 to U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) The 4700 year-end target for the S&P 500 index assumes ERP of 4.8% and U.S. Treasury yield at 1.6%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Risk Premium – 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield Minus Real 10-Year Government Bond Yield The Equity Risk Premium has increased over the last few months. Image: BCA Research