Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium, at the 94th percentile from 2010 and at the 67th percentile from 2000, suggests that investors may not be receiving adequate compensation for the risks associated with investing in U.S. stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
FMS Investors – Biggest “Tail Risk” Concerns about geopolitical conflict have risen among FMS investors, with 33% now viewing it as the biggest “tail risk” for the global economy, primarily due to its potential negative impact on financial markets and investments. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Sentiment – Global Equity Risk-Love The Global Equity Risk-Love indicator, currently at the 68th percentile, has moved out of the euphoria territory, allowing for potential upside as we approach year-end. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
FMS Investors – Net % Taking Higher than Normal Risk Levels In September, FMS risk appetite has significantly decreased, reaching a 11-month low. This decline reflects growing concerns among FMS investors regarding economic stability and market conditions. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Sentiment – Global Risk Demand Index The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index indicates that investors’ risk appetite is very low, which can often be seen as a contrarian indicator, where extreme pessimism might signal a potential rebound in equity markets. Image: Morgan Stanley
Risk Appetite in Flows After Adjusting for Seasonality and Cyclical Growth Market sentiment is currently robust, with risk appetite in flows at the 85th percentile, falling short of extreme levels. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Index As investors embrace a more aggressive stance, the risk appetite indicator is back to elevated levels, signaling a willingness to take on higher levels of risk for potentially greater returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Despite potential in U.S. equities, the decline in equity risk premium suggests caution is needed, prompting diversification across asset classes for risk management. Image: BofA Global Research
What Presents the Biggest Risk to Markets over the Next 6 Months in Your View? According to a recent survey, 27% of JPM customers consider high valuations to be the biggest risk to markets, indicating a growing concern about the potential for overinflated asset prices. Image: J.P. Morgan
Do You Believe the Risk of an Equity Market Correction at Some Point Over the Next 3-6 Months Is High or Low? JPMorgan’s survey reveals that 82% of their clients anticipate a high likelihood of an equity market correction within the next 3-6 months. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Considering the substantial decline in the equity risk premium, which currently stands well below its historical average, should investors approach U.S. equities with caution? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy