Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this level, the squeeze could trim global GDP growth by roughly 0.3pp over the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets a lift, Treasuries draw buyers unless energy prices spiral, and equities typically retreat. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – Biggest Risks to Market Stability in 2026 A rare consensus is emerging among investors on what could shake markets in 2026. Deutsche Bank’s latest survey finds AI and tech bubble jitters leading the pack, overshadowing concerns about Fed autonomy and private credit stress. Click the Image to Enlarge
Equity Risk Premium and S&P 500 Valuations The current U.S. equity market’s expensive valuations are more grounded in earnings reality than during the late 1990s, but investors should remain cautious due to limited downside protection and valuations ranked at a high percentile. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Returns The S&P 500’s risk-adjusted return in 2025 has been disappointing so far, reflecting a challenging market environment characterized by increased volatility and lower-than-average returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk-Adjusted Returns Across U.S. Equity Indices The S&P 500’s performance so far this year has been marked by relatively low returns and high volatility, leading to weak risk-adjusted outcomes and signaling a challenging environment for investors seeking favorable risk-reward balances. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Parity Model Portfolio Weights In risk-parity strategies, the current equity allocation is at the 8th percentile—well below the median—reflecting a preference for safer assets despite the ongoing equity rally. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot