Keyword: target

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Jan. 29 Meeting Traders see a 8.9% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC January 29 meeting. Image: CME Group

S&P 500 2020 Target Models BofAML is bullish. The official S&P 500 2020 estimate is 3,300. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy

S&P 500 Bottom-Up Target Price Industry analysts in aggregate expect the S&P 500 to rise 13.0% over the next 12 months. Image: FactSet

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Image: Credit Suisse

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Image: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop

U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rises to 1.6% in June. Inflation trending back up toward the Fed’s 2% target is good news. You may also like “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.”

Target Probabilities at the Fed’s July 31 Meeting Today, traders see a 47.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut and a 52.4% probability of a 50-bps rate cut at the Fed’s July 31 meeting. Image: CME Group

The GS Financial Conditions Index and The Target Fed Funds Rate The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is not at its lowest level and the current levels are quite similar than previous first rate cuts. Image: Bianco Research

The S&P 500’s Drawdown and The Target Fed Funds Rate Fed rate cuts have generally been associated with recessions and drawdowns. Image: Bianco Research