One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is greater concern in the market about the risk of default. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
FMS Investors – What Is the Most Likely Source for a Systemic Credit Event? FMS investors still see the US/EU commercial real estate as the biggest source of a systematic credit event. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Earnings – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd EPS vs. EPS Implied by Credit and Manufacturing Surveys Could an earnings recession be a significant risk for U.S. stocks? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Survey – Credit Investors: What Are Your Biggest Concerns? U.S. credit investors are concerned about a recession, inflation and bank stress. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Recession – Net % Tightening Standards for Credit Card Loans U.S. banks are concerned about the risk of a recession, as they are tightening their lending standards. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China Credit Impulse and Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) – Leading Indicator Will EUR/USD peak in mid-2023? Image: Steno Research
U.S. Consumer Credit Card Interest Rates Are U.S. consumer credit card interest rates on the way to the moon? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Credit-Based Recession Probability The U.S. credit recession indicator suggests that a U.S. recession is still less likely through the second quarter of 2023. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Interest Rates and Credit Yields Will U.S. interest rates continue to rise in 2023? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research