Survey – Credit Investors: What Are Your Biggest Concerns? The 2024 U.S. election outcome could significantly impact fiscal policy, debt, interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, which are key concerns for U.S. credit investors. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX Low high-yield credit spreads and a low VIX may suggest market positivity, but the lack of fear or volatility can paradoxically create a sense of complacency among investors, causing them to overlook potential risks. Image: Topdown Charts
FMS Investors – What Is the Most Likely Source for a Systemic Credit Event? FMS investors view the China real estate as the biggest source of a systematic credit event due to excessive borrowing, with significant implications for the Chinese economy and global consequences. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Average Credit Card Rate Record-high credit card interest charges indicate significant financial burdens for cardholders, which can have important implications for both individual cardholders and the broader U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot
One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is greater concern in the market about the risk of default. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd EPS vs. EPS Implied by Credit and Manufacturing Surveys Could an earnings recession be a significant risk for U.S. stocks? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Recession – Net % Tightening Standards for Credit Card Loans U.S. banks are concerned about the risk of a recession, as they are tightening their lending standards. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China Credit Impulse and Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) – Leading Indicator Will EUR/USD peak in mid-2023? Image: Steno Research
U.S. Consumer Credit Card Interest Rates Are U.S. consumer credit card interest rates on the way to the moon? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management