Fed Funds Forecast vs. Market Pricing While the Fed has made progress in the fight against inflation, BofA holds a significantly more hawkish view on Fed policy compared to market expectations. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Dollar Forecast BofA’s outlook suggests a continued decline of the U.S. dollar until the end of 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and changing global economic conditions. Image: BofA Global Research
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, projecting a trading range of $70 to $85 per barrel until the end of 2025, due to stable OPEC inventories, strong U.S. production, and weak demand from China. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Rates – 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts BofA forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 3.75% by year-end 2024, suggesting the possibility of a downward trend in borrowing costs, particularly if inflation continues to moderate and economic growth slows. Image: BofA Global Research
Rates and Dollar Forecast BofA expects the Fed to cut rates in September, adjusting its previous expectations. While market expectations for rate cuts have risen, the Fed hasn’t given a clear signal and will rely on data before making a decision. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% by 2026, with U.S. core CPI projected at 2.4% and U.S. headline CPI at 2.4%. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts BofA forecasts that U.S. core PCE will move higher in the second half of 2024 due to unfavorable base effects, but risks are substantially lower compared to the two years prior. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 EPS and Index Level Forecasts Over time, stock prices are driven by earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 is expected to see earnings per share growth of 8% in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price of Oil Forecast In contrast to futures market’s expectations, Goldman Sachs forecasts a positive outlook for oil prices over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research