G7 Budget Deficits, Share of GDP The U.S. is running by far the largest budget deficit among G7 economies when measured relative to GDP, and projections show little improvement over the next few years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
G7 Inflation Average Current projections and trends suggest a return to 5% inflation is unlikely in the near term, but long-term structural changes and unforeseen shocks could alter this outlook. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Returns – G7 + China Free Liquidity and MSCI ACWI (Leading Indicator) Global free liquidity continues to rise. When global free liquidity is above 10%, equity markets tend to perform well: the average next 12-month return is 23.4% with a hit ratio of 100% since 2009. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Dollar Smile (U.S. Growth vs the Rest of G7) and U.S. Double Deficit Global growth rebound and widening U.S. double deficit suggest a further depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Image: Nomura
Largest Bailouts in History in 2020 USD vs. G7 Debt to GDP This chart shows the largest global bailout in history, as a response to the coronavirus crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank
G7 OECD Composite Lead Indicator and Global Manufacturing PMI This chart also suggests a pick-up in the global manufacturing PMI, after having been in contraction territory. Image: BofA Global Research
Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth