Global Employment in S&P 500 Companies vs. Small Businesses Small and medium-sized businesses play an important role in the U.S. economy, as S&P 500 companies employ only 17% of U.S. workers. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research
Global Employment and Global Real Retail Sales Chart suggesting that the slowdown in global employment is expected to impact global real retail sales. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Business Cycle – Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that U.S. growth has peaked. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate While the Sahm Rule has historically been a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions, the current labor market dynamics differ from past recessions and may challenge its applicability in the present context. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Unemployment Rate Even though the labor market is solid and the economy is growing, President Biden’s approval rating remains low, largely due to public unease over high inflation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Recession – U.S. Personal Saving Rate vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising personal saving rates tend to be associated with economic downturns or recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Delinquencies, Personal Saving Rate and Unemployment Delinquencies in the United States are on the rise. Is a hard landing coming? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy