U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey

U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its U.S. recession forecast probability from 20% to 15% based on recent macroeconomic data, especially a strong employment report that surpassed expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Consensus expectations for the August non-farm payrolls report suggest an increase of approximately 165,000 jobs, while the U.S. unemployment rate is projected to decline to 4.2%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate

U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS)

Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims U.S. initial unemployment claims are rising in states with tech and banks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy