Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into the late phase of its business cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims U.S. initial unemployment claims are rising in states with tech and banks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining employment and wage growth would allow the Fed to make aggressive cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Labor Market – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Retail Sales A slight increase in the U.S. unemployment rate could lead to increased concerns about a hard landing for the U.S. economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Measures of U.S. Underlying Inflation Underlying inflation remains subdued, as the U.S. economy is well below full employment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inequality – Monthly Income After Tax Minus Average Monthly Expenditures Greatest economy ever? Despite increasing wage growth and a low unemployment rate, half of the U.S. population spends more than their income. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research