Share of Russell 3000 Firms Discussing Layoffs During Quarterly Earnings Calls You won’t hear much about layoffs on earnings calls these days, a hint that management still sees blue skies for growth. Talk of job cuts usually comes when profit margins start to thin. For now, steady headcount says it all. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate A 19% rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate would significantly slow economic growth and sharply increase recession risk, with broad spillover effects on inflation, employment, and overall business confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims When interest rates are high, weak credit conditions can greatly affect the economy, potentially resulting in increased unemployment. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims U.S. initial unemployment claims are rising in states with tech and banks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inequality – Monthly Income After Tax Minus Average Monthly Expenditures Greatest economy ever? Despite increasing wage growth and a low unemployment rate, half of the U.S. population spends more than their income. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research