U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey
U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its U.S. recession forecast probability from 20% to 15% based on recent macroeconomic data, especially a strong employment report that surpassed expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims When interest rates are high, weak credit conditions can greatly affect the economy, potentially resulting in increased unemployment. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Consensus expectations for the August non-farm payrolls report suggest an increase of approximately 165,000 jobs, while the U.S. unemployment rate is projected to decline to 4.2%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims U.S. initial unemployment claims are rising in states with tech and banks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inequality – Monthly Income After Tax Minus Average Monthly Expenditures Greatest economy ever? Despite increasing wage growth and a low unemployment rate, half of the U.S. population spends more than their income. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research