University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index and Real Consumer Spending This chart shows the correlation between consumer expectations and real consumer spending, and suggests real consumer spending growth of around 2.5-3%. Picture source: ING
A Breakdown of the Average American Spending Consumer spending drives 68% of the U.S. economy and affects U.S. GDP. Picture source: howmuch.net
S&P 500 Earnings and U.S. Capital Spending This chart shows that U.S. core capital spending is near a 20-year high. Are fears that U.S. companies may be curtailing spending plans overblown? Keep in mind that the absence of dividend cuts also suggests that U.S. companies are confident in their future earnings potential. Picture source: Leuthold Group
Housing – U.S. Construction Spending and Recessions Historically, when the three month moving average turned negative, a U.S. recession occurred within a 12-month period, 7 times out of 9. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending The chart shows real PCE around first Fed rate cut: recession vs. no recession. Fed rate cuts are more effective during a recession. Picture source: Ned Davis Research
Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Picture source: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
Total Outlays (Spending) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that the U.S. federal government spends. Picture source: Bianco Research
As China Trade Fears Intensified, Big U.S. Companies Tightened Spending A drop in capital spending in S&P 500 companies is a bad sign for the U.S. economy. Picture source: The Wall Street Journal
Consumption Growth and Household Debt This chart shows the effects of household debt and suggests that high household debt limits consumer spending. Picture source: Oxford Economics
S&P 500 Use of Cash and Buybacks This chart shows that buybacks account for the largest share of cash spending by companies in the S&P 500. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
