Consensus Capex Spending Estimates for AI Hyperscalers Hyperscalers are ramping up capex, with analysts lifting forecasts well beyond early 2025 estimates amid surging AI infrastructure investment and intensifying global tech competition. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Cash Spending Relative to Cash Flows Many S&P 500 companies devote substantial cash flow to stock buybacks, a practice that benefits shareholders in the short term but sparks concerns about favoring short-term gains over long-term growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real U.S. Consumer Spending During the first half of 2025, U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending contracted—the weakest pace seen in over 15 years—driven by cautious consumer behavior amid tariff concerns and economic uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank
2025 Projected U.S. Federal Spending While the idea of cutting $2 trillion from U.S. federal spending is appealing in theory, the practical challenges and political realities make it a daunting task. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Government Spending U.S. government spending fell by 6% year-over-year, marking a notable shift. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Gold – Beta of USD/xxx to Equity Market Volatility Related to Government Spending Gold has been a very good hedge against debt ceiling worries in the past. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Market Volatility Related to Uncertainty over Government Spending Equity market volatility may spike when the debt ceiling is under discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Performance and Discretionary Retail Spending (Leading Indicator) The performance of the S&P 500 tends to lead discretionary retail spending by 9 months. Image: TS Lombard
Effect of Fiscal Spending on the Level of U.S. GDP Fiscal support in the United States is expected to decline significantly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Commodities – Commodity Price Shock, Percent of Consumer Spending The commodity price shock on consumers is not yet at the level of the 1970s. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending If Oil Prices Rise to $120 If oil prices remain elevated, will the Fed raise interest rates more gradually than markets expect? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management