Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 56.9. That’s good news despite US-China trade tensions and weak global growth. When ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are below 50, as in 2001 and 2008, there is a recession.But when there is a divergence, as in 2016 and today, it doesn’t…