The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions While rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures and pose risks to economic growth, data suggest that current oil prices do not point toward a U.S. recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices act like a tax on the economy, cutting disposable income and raising business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are generally short-lived because demand falls and markets adapt. Image: Real Investment Advice
CTAs Allocation in Oil Given the current market climate, Commodity Trading Advisors have notably raised their exposure to oil. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and equity impacts remain limited. Image: Bloomberg
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions Sharp increases in oil prices—often doubling—have been a consistent and significant signal preceding U.S. recessions, making oil prices a key economic indicator to watch for early signs of economic downturns. Image: Yahoo Finance
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Brent Crude Oil Prices – Biggest Weekly Jumps Fueled by a sudden escalation in Middle East conflict and concerns over major supply disruptions, Brent crude oil prices experienced one of their biggest weekly gains since 1988. Image: Deutsche Bank
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $60/56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, with a further decline to an annual average of $56/$52 per barrel in 2026, reflecting increased global supply from OPEC+. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil, 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields and U.S. Dollar The increasing cohesion in recent years between oil prices, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar reflects deeper economic linkages and heightened sensitivity to policy and market shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank